China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990–2002

Abstract

This paper explores China's competitive threat to Lat in America in trade in manufactures. The direct threat in exports to third country markets appears small: LAC's trade structure is largely complementary to that of China. In bilateral trade, several LAC countries are increasing primary and resource-based exports to China. However, the pattern of trade, with LAC specializing increasingly in resource-based products and China in manufactures, seems worrying. Given cumulative capability building, China's success in increasingly technologybased products with strong learning externalities can place it on a higher growth path than specialisation in 'simpler' goods, as in LAC. China may thus affect LAC's technological upgrading in exports and industrial production. The issue is not so much current competition as the 'spaces' open for LAC in the emerging technology-based world.

Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?

“…They have used various methods, including inspection of trade data (e.g. Lall et al 2005;Mesquita Moreira, 2007;Kaplinsky and Morris, 2008), revealed comparative advantage calculations (Lederman et al, 2008), gravity models (e.g. Greenaway et al, 2008;Hanson and Robertson, 2010) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (e.g.…”

Re-ordering the Region? China, Latin America and the Western Hemisphere

“…Many of the contributions in these volumes reflect, to varying degrees, the authors' concerns about such a model -that is, about 'a general trend for the region to become more specialized in production of primary products and resource based manufactures, while China specializes in manufactured goods which are becoming more technologically sophisticated over time' (Jenkins in Jenkins and Dussel Peters, 59). The argument is perhaps most clearly made in the various excellent contributions to the Jenkins and Dussel Peters volume and by Gallagher and Porzecanski, and indeed is commonly heard in the wider literature (see Lall and Weiss 2005;Mesquita Moreira 2007;Kaplinsky and Morris 2008;Phillips 2009Phillips , 2010. The concern relates to what is surely a 'backward' movement to a global positioning based on the export of raw materials, with all of its consequences for growth, processes of economic upgrading, and indeed social development.…”

Post-crisis China impact on trade integration and manufacturing competitiveness between Argentina and Brazil

“…Nowadays, China is the largest trading partner of Brazil and the second largest of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. China's trade expansion in Latin America was initially depicted as an opportunity for most of Latin American countries, as their export structures were largely complementary (Lall, 2005;Blázquez-Lidoy et al, 2007;Qureshi & Wan, 2008;Lederman, 2009) and China's demand improved the trade terms of commodity exporting countries. Nonetheless, this optimistic tone faded while concerns grew given China's manufacturing competitiveness, especially in economies belonging to Mercosur, whose design aims to generate sustainable long-term growth potential by increasing industrialization.…”