China’s Auto Industry Upgrade Process Based on Aging Chain and Coflow Model

Abstract

To protect energy resources and alleviate environmental pollution, many countries attach great importance to the transformation of traditional industries into clean energy industries. In this paper, fuel vehicles (FVs), hybrid vehicles (HVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) are included in the research. Then, based on the aging chain and coflow theory of SDs, we construct a dynamic matching model of the auto industry upgrade process and its energy consumption attributes. The simulation results of China’s auto industry show that (1) the upgrading of the auto industry is an evolutionary process from high energy consumption and high pollution to low energy consumption and no pollution and the transition from FVs and HVs to EVs will undergo two adjustments; (2) simply reducing energy supply does not have the expected impact on vehicle size and vehicle energy consumption intensity and only by adjusting the energy supply and upgrade ratios together, energy utilization efficiency can be improved; (3) market screening time has an impact on auto industry upgrade speed by affecting vehicle market share and dwell time; (4) China’s auto industry upgrade process should adhere to “problem-oriented” and strengthen consumer guidance, technology innovation, and infrastructure construction. The conclusions can provide references for industrial policy adjustment and industrial structure optimization.

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“…China Industry Information Network (CIIN) shows that auto production increased from 2.07 million to 24.5 million during 2000-2015, with an average annual growth rate of 17.92% [40]. After years of rapid development, the growth state of China's vehicle industry has returned stable [41].…”