China and the blunt temptations of geo-engineering: the role of solar radiation management in China's strategic response to climate change

Abstract

Amid growing alarm over the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, increasing attention is being given to 'geo-engineering' technologies that could counteract some of the impacts of global warming by either reducing absorption of solar energy (solar radiation management (SRM)) or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Geo-engineering has the potential to dramatically alter the dynamics of global climate change negotiations because it might cool the climate without constraining fossil fuel use. Some scholars have expressed concern that certain states may be tempted to act unilaterally. This paper assesses the approach that China is likely to adopt towards governance of SRM and the implications this holds for broader international climate negotiations. We survey Chinese public discourse, examine the policy factors that will influence China's position, and assess the likelihood of certain future scenarios. While Chinese climate scientists are keenly aware of the potential benefits of geo-engineering as well as its risks, we find that no significant constituency is currently promoting unilateral implementation of SRM. China will probably play a broadly cooperative role in negotiations toward a multilaterally governed geo-engineering programme but will seek to promote a distinctive developing world perspective that reflects concerns over sovereignty, Western imperialism and maintenance of a strict interpretation of the norm of common but differentiated responsibility.

Beliefs and values explain international differences in perception of solar radiation management: insights from a cross-country survey

“…Consequently, technologies such as SRM that address global warming without affecting GHG emissions may be appealing (Edney and Symons 2014). On the other hand, concerns in China about air quality and health may go handin-hand with concerns about emissions-which include GHGs-from industries and automobiles (WHO 2015;Yu 2014).…”

Will China be the first to initiate climate engineering?

“…It served as a major transportation artery and prosperous settlements thrived along its course [ Luo et al ., ]. The North‐South Water Diversion , which in December 2014 delivered the first water to Beijing will cost twice as much as the Three Gorges Dam and transfer 44.8 billion cubic meters of fresh water annually from Southern China to the arid North through three new canals [ Edney and Symons , ] (Figure ).…”

“…Such weather modification may be erroneously seen as geoengineering. But the objective for the communities is to prevent damage from violent storms rather than to make for blue sky days [ Edney and Symons , ]. The motivation for cloud seeding are thus entirely local, and immediate in action, hence it fails the definitions of geoengineering [ Keith , ; Shepherd et al ., ] by lacking both scope and intent.…”

“…The decade of central government discussion, controversy and subsequent reputational damage surrounding the building of the Three Gorges Dam [ Liu et al ., ], suggests future government reluctance to initiate technological‐intensive fixes for climate such as SRM. Chinese scientists have been reluctant to become involved in SRM geoengineering [ Edney and Symons , ; Weng and Chen , ]. However, China has just decided to support research into simulations of climate and impact studies under geoengineering climates.…”

Geoengineering: The Next Era of Geopolitics?

“…Whether the political incentives in a geopolitically divided world will line up with the technical matters is much less clear. While China has a history of smaller scale weather modification efforts, so far, there is little indication that serious thought has been given there to scaling these up to attempt unilateral SRM (Edney and Symons ). The simple fact that researchers elsewhere are working on possible technologies and worrying about such things as whether SRM might disrupt Asian monsoons, with all the consequences that this might have on food production in India and China if they were tried, makes clear that getting agreements on the “rules of the road” for experimenting or deploying such technologies in advance is crucial, whether under the UNFCCC or some other arrangement.…”