China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”: Agricultural Trade Volatility Decomposition and Food Security

Abstract

Agricultural products are essential for human survival, and strengthening agricultural trade cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) can promote food security, but there are few studies on bilateral trade fluctuation factors in the literature. This paper uses the modified multi-country multi-product CMS (constant market share) model and the two-country multi-product CMS model to decompose the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and B&R countries by stage, region, and agricultural product type. The results show that in recent years, in the fluctuation of China’s exports to B&R countries, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect plays a major hindering role, accounting for −9.2%; in the region, Southeast Asia has the largest share of trade, which is mainly pulled by the joint demand effect, structural effect and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly pulled by competitiveness. In the fluctuation of B&R countries’ export to China, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect pulls the largest share, accounting for 72.55%; in the region, Southeast Asia is mainly driven by the joint pull of demand effect, structural effect. and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly driven by the pull of demand effect. The findings of this paper can provide a basis for making decisions on food security cooperation between China and B&R countries.

Study on Measurement and Influencing Factors of Trade Embodied Carbon-Based on China-Russia Agricultural Products Trade

“…This paper measures the carbon emission coefficients of different energy sources using Model (1). According to the energy index data in Table 3, the carbon emission coefficients of kerosene, diesel oil, and fuel oil are high, above 3.0, and fuel oil reaches more than 3.20, while the carbon emission coefficient of coal is the smallest, typically less than 2.0; and the carbon emission coefficients of coke, gasoline, and natural gas are in the range of 2.0-3.0.…”

“…As the ties between China and Russia deepen, their collaboration in trade, particularly in agriculture, has witnessed significant growth [1]. Both nations, being major players in the global agricultural market, have strengthened their trade relations due to factors like their entry into the World Trade Organization, the initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative, and economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia [2].…”

“…Both nations, being major players in the global agricultural market, have strengthened their trade relations due to factors like their entry into the World Trade Organization, the initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative, and economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia [2]. This has led to a substantial increase in bilateral agricultural trade, reaching a total value of 5.5 billion USD in 2020, marking a sevenfold rise since 2001 1 . China has emerged as the largest importer of Russian agricultural products, while Russia holds the third position among importers of Chinese agricultural goods [3].…”

Status of Sino–Russian Trade in Agricultural Products: Dual Consideration Based on Characteristics and Growth

“…The constant market share (CMS) model, proposed by Tyszynski (1951) and improved by many scholars, is widely used for examining the effect of trade growth in the international trade market and policy research [45]. In recent years, the CMS model has been utilized by researchers to analyze growth factors for the trade of agricultural products in China [46][47][48][49][50]. The basic assumption of the CMS model is that a country's share of exports in the target market will remain unchanged if its competitiveness remains unchanged.…”

Analysis of the Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on China’s Grain Trade

“…Existing research mainly examines the factors affecting supply and demand in the micro dimension. Some scholars have analyzed grain trade using the constant market share model (CMS), pointing out that the import gravitational and structural effects are the two main elements affecting grain imports [20,21]. Along this line, Scholars have confirmed that the information available to both sides of the trade, bargaining power, the scale of import demand, the growth rate of supply, labor costs and production costs are important factors affecting the fluctuation of grain trade [22,23].…”