Chilling requirements of apple cultivars grown in mild Australian winter conditions

Parkes, Heidi A.; Darbyshire, Rebecca; White, Neil

doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2019.108858

Cited by 30 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…This plot corresponds to RCP 8.5 for a representative high chill requirement cultivar: Cripps Pink with a minimum chill requirement of 73.3CP [49]. The green part of the figures are a time series of chill portion accumulation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Noorazar

Kalcsits

Jones

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit production systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on risks of insufficient chill accumulation in the warmer tree fruit and nut production regions of the United States (US), such as the Southeast and California, where these risks are currently prevalent. In this work, we focus on the Pacific Northwest US – the largest production area in the US for apples, pears and cherries – and quantify the potential risk of insufficient chill accumulation. Our results highlight large spatial variations in response within the PNW, with northern areas projected to have reduced risks and southern areas projected to have increased risks. In the southern areas, rather than chill accumulation in and of itself, it is the combination of reduced and delayed chill accumulation with likely advancement in spring phenology that lead to production risks. In spite of future reductions to chill accumulation, risks of insufficient chill accumulation seem limited for apple even with advancement of spring phenology. Under the extreme “no climate policy” RCP 8.5 climate projections, the production risks are significant for early blooming crops (e.g. cherries) and varieties with relatively high chill portions requirements (e.g. Sam cherries), necessitating planning for management strategies such as frost protection and chemical management of budbreak to address potential risks which have not historically been a concern in the region. Under less extreme warming outcomes, the PNW tree fruit production systems are likely to remain resilient. Given that the convergence of the fulfillment of chilling requirements and environmental conditions promoting budbreak is where potential risk to perennial tree fruit production exists, future work should focus on understanding, modelling and projecting responses within this convergence space. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW that faced limited risk historically, but could be exposed to new risks under a warming climate.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Noorazar

Kalcsits

Jones

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The major three models are the "chilling hours", "Utah" and "dynamic" models. The chilling hours and Utah models were applied in the temperate regions successfully, but they were less efficient in the Mediterranean and subtropical regions under warm winter conditions [140].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The dynamic model showed the least variation (0.1-5.9%), followed by the chilling hours model (1.3-9.0%) and the Utah model (2.1-14.0%). Therefore, the dynamic model data were the most preferred to predict winter chill under warm winter conditions [140]. The impacts of climate change in Argentina were studied in vineyards using some bioclimatic indices that characterized the potential climate changes, which were highly related to the qualitative potential of grapes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperate Fruit Trees under Climate Change: Challenges for Dormancy and Chilling Requirements in Warm Winter Regions

et al. 2021

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Adequate chill is of great importance for successful production of deciduous fruit trees. However, temperate fruit trees grown under tropical and subtropical regions may face insufficient winter chill, which has a crucial role in dormancy and productivity. The objective of this review is to discuss the challenges for dormancy and chilling requirements of temperate fruit trees, especially in warm winter regions, under climate change conditions. After defining climate change and dormancy, the effects of climate change on various parameters of temperate fruit trees are described. Then, dormancy breaking chemicals and organic compounds, as well as some aspects of the mechanism of dormancy breaking, are demonstrated. After this, the relationships between dormancy and chilling requirements are delineated and challenging aspects of chilling requirements in climate change conditions and in warm winter environments are demonstrated. Experts have sought to develop models for estimating chilling requirements and dormancy breaking in order to improve the adaption of temperate fruit trees under tropical and subtropical environments. Some of these models and their uses are described in the final section of this review. In conclusion, global warming has led to chill deficit during winter, which may become a limiting factor in the near future for the growth of temperate fruit trees in the tropics and subtropics. With the increasing rate of climate change, improvements in some managing tools (e.g., discovering new, more effective dormancy breaking organic compounds; breeding new, climate-smart cultivars in order to solve problems associated with dormancy and chilling requirements; and improving dormancy and chilling forecasting models) have the potential to solve the challenges of dormancy and chilling requirements for temperate fruit tree production in warm winter fruit tree growing regions.

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“…To create the 3D correction model, we assumed that observed SWC values are a function of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures in July and implemented ordinary Kriging to predict a continuous surface. We implemented this procedure using functions within the fields package for R (Nychka et al 2017). We interpolated a similar surface relating SWC to values of the co-variables for the same locations from the WorldClim database.…”

Section: Spatial Chill Interpolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warm winters challenge the cultivation of temperate species in South America—a spatial analysis of chill accumulation

et al. 2021

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Winter chill accumulation plays a crucial role in determining the moment of bud burst in temperate fruit and nut trees, and insufficient chill can greatly limit yield potentials. To assess future cultivation options for such species in South America, we estimated winter chill through a spatial analysis. We used historical data (1980–2017) from 158 weather stations to calibrate a weather generator and produce temperature data for 10 historical and 60 future scenarios. We computed Safe Winter Chill (SWC, corresponding to the 10th quantile of a chill distribution) for the period 1980–2017 and for all historical and future weather scenarios and developed a framework to interpolate SWC for the continent using the Kriging method. To improve the interpolation, we applied a 3D correction model based on two co-variables (means of daily temperature extremes in July). Our results suggest important chill declines in southern Brazil and central Chile. By 2050 under the global warming scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), absolute SWC in these regions may reach a median of 18.7 and 39.6 Chill Portions (CP), respectively. Projections are most alarming for a strong global warming scenario (RCP8.5). In southern South America, adequate SWC levels of about 60 CP may be expected even under the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results highlight the need for climate change adaptation measures to secure temperate fruit production in important growing regions of South America. The procedure we developed may help farmers and practitioners across South America estimate future SWC to adapt their orchards to future challenges.

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Chilling requirements of apple cultivars grown in mild Australian winter conditions

Cited by 30 publications

References 51 publications

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Temperate Fruit Trees under Climate Change: Challenges for Dormancy and Chilling Requirements in Warm Winter Regions

Warm winters challenge the cultivation of temperate species in South America—a spatial analysis of chill accumulation

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