Childhood Mortality, Childhood Morbidity, and Subsequent Fertility Decisions

Abstract

Abstract:The effects of childhood mortality and morbidity on the fertility decision-making process are analyzed using longitudinal micro data from a Senegalese rural community, for the period 1984–2011. I attempt to identify the effect of individual child mortality, and also that of community child mortality and morbidity, on subsequent fertility choices. The results provide consistent support for both the child-replacement hypothesis and the precautionary demand for children. I find that community child mortality and morbidity attributable to malaria, which capture changes in the epidemiological context, exert a joint influence on fertility behaviors. Community-level malaria incidence among children has a positive effect on subsequent fertility choices, and this positive effect is stronger the more the disease is fatal to children who are infected. This study highlights the role of morbidity, acting through the relative risk of dying from the disease, on the slow fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa.

Childhood mortality, intra-household bargaining power and fertility preferences among women in Ghana

“…This implies that households have targeted numbers of children and that reductions below this target generates disutility. The hypothesis is known in the literature as the replacement hypothesis [7, 13]. The second hypothesis assumes that households have or prefer to have more children as precaution when uncertainties about child survival are high.…”

“…This hypothesis is known as the child survival hypothesis or hoarding motive [6]. In other studies, this hypothesis has been referred to as ‘anticipatory effect’ [13] or insurance effect [7]. While the former hypothesis is predicted to impact only total fertility positively, the latter is expected to affect both total and net fertility positively.…”

“…Results from the standard Poisson regression model confirmed the child survival hypothesis with a positive effect of child mortality on both total and net fertility. In a related study, Bousmah [7] used longitudinal data from the same surveillance system in Senegal and found that both the replacement hypothesis and hoarding motives were true in the case of Senegal. The author confirmed that morbidity and mortality from malaria jointly affected subsequent fertility choices positively.…”