Recent increases in the prevalence of childhood obesity have created an urgent need for preventive strategies, but such strategies in turn depend on an improved understanding of the etiology of pediatric obesity. There is a dearth of evidence of the cause of pediatric obesity at present, with much of the literature of limited quality, inconclusive, and contradictory. The present review highlights the paradox of energy imbalance-its apparent simplicity but actual complexity-and the difficulties in etiologic research that arise from this complexity. The review identifies a number of emerging problems for etiologic studies. The review also makes a number of proposals that might improve future etiologic studies and provides a framework for integrating the diverse body of evidence of etiology that will become available in future. Gathering improved evidence of etiology, and then integrating and interpreting it, will take many years. In the meantime, an emphasis on developing more effective preventive interventions is necessary. O besity continues to increase rapidly across much of the world (1-5). In England, obesity prevalence defined as body mass index (BMI) Õ95th percentile relative to UK 1990 reference data (4) in 11-15 y olds was 25% in 2004 (5) compared with 17% in 1996 (6) and 5% by definition in 1990 (4). In Europe, the rate of increase in childhood obesity prevalence is itself increasing (3). The obesity epidemic is therefore recent, and this is one reason why its etiology is not well understood at present. Secular trends to a more central body fat distribution and increasing body fatness appear to have occurred across the distribution of children (7-13), so many more children have been affected by the epidemic than obesity prevalence data based on BMI might suggest.The combination of high and increasing prevalence of obesity, limited evidence supportive of specific preventive interventions summarized in systematic reviews (14,15), evidence of adverse effects of obesity from systematic review (16), and uncertainty about etiology, provides great cause for concern. In this review, we examine the origins of the etiologic uncertainty, suggest improvements in the design and analysis of etiologic studies, and propose a framework for integrating the diverse body of evidence of etiology.The specific aims of the present review are therefore to (1) highlight the paradoxical complexity of the etiology of obesity; (2) identify emerging problems in etiologic research; (3) suggest ways in which energy balance studies (which attempt to attribute etiology to energy intake and/or energy expenditure) and epidemiologic studies (which try to identify exposure variables for obesity) might be more productive in future; (4) suggest approaches to integrating the diverse body of evidence of etiology now available.
ETIOLOGY OF OBESITY: THE ENERGY BALANCE PARADOXBecause obesity is an energy balance disorder, caused only by a chronic excess of energy intake over energy requirement, its origins seem very simple and obvious, pa...