Child Poverty as a Factor of Low Fertility in Russia

Abstract

The problem of depopulation has become a major challenge for modern Russia. The demographic policy resulted in a short-term increase in the birth rate, but there remains the overall downward trend. The reason is that the current demographic situation in the country is a combination of global demographic transition processes and an unfavorable socio-economic situation. According to sociological studies, one of the main factors constraining the birth of children is the lack of material resources. The article presents a regional analysis of the distribution of constituent entities of the Russian Federation by the total fertility rate (TFR) as the basis of reproductive behavior and by the level of poverty of the population. Regions with a high birth rate were found to have a high level of poverty (the Republics of Chechnya, Tyva, and Altai). Since 2008, there has been an increase in relative child poverty; regions where this indicator is higher than the national average are divided into two groups – those with a high level of general poverty (Republic of Mari El, Pskov region, Republic of Karelia, Saratov region, Smolensk region) and regions with a low level of general poverty (Sakhalin region, Moscow, Moscow region, Lipetsk region, Voronezh region). When assessing the closeness of the relationship between the TFR indicators and relative child poverty, we revealed that the higher the level of child poverty, the lower the number of children in families. Out of 35 regions with a TFR of more than 1.5, only 9 territories have a poverty level below 12.3%. These are the national Republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug; the Tyumen and Sakhalin regions, which are ‘rich’ in raw materials; the Krasnodar Krai, actively accepting internal migration; the Sverdlovsk region, being the center of the industrial Urals; the Khabarovsk Krai, which is the center of the Far East; and the city of Moscow, where the poverty level is the lowest in the country. The study has identified the areas where a high birth rate has led to a concentration of poverty risks, especially for children, which, in turn, has long-term negative consequences for the development of regions. One of the main problems in preventing depopulation is the reduction of child poverty as one of the determining factors of reproductive behavior, social development, and public health.