Child and working-age poverty in Northern Ireland from 2010 to 2020

Browne, James; Hood, Andrew; Joyce, Robert

doi:10.1920/re.ifs.2013.0078

Cited by 13 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 14 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…They find that these immediate effects, comprising a combination of falls in labour market incomes and austerity measures, were spread widely across income groups -overall income inequality was quite stable, and relative income © 2013 The Authors Fiscal Studies © 2013 Institute for Fiscal Studies poverty rose slightly but by far less than absolute income poverty. Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013) project median income and poverty rates in the UK (against a moving and fixed poverty line) in the post-recession period from 2010-11 to 2016-17, and in 2020-21. This paper studies the UK case in detail. It updates work in Jenkins et al (2012) and combines this with the simulations underlying Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013), in order to study the short-term and likely medium-term implications of the recession for the income distribution as a whole.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013) project median income and poverty rates in the UK (against a moving and fixed poverty line) in the post-recession period from 2010-11 to 2016-17, and in 2020-21. This paper studies the UK case in detail. It updates work in Jenkins et al (2012) and combines this with the simulations underlying Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013), in order to study the short-term and likely medium-term implications of the recession for the income distribution as a whole. Section II describes our methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…No adjustment is made for women of any other age, nor for their partners. See appendix section D.3 of Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013) for a full description of the methods used. The fact that we do not make similar adjustments for other changes should be interpreted as our considering that the economic forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility fully reflect the likely behavioural response to important policy changes due over this period.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These are changes to the way that tax credit entitlements respond to withinyear income fluctuations; reductions in the age of youngest child at which a lone parent can claim income support rather than jobseeker's allowance; and changes to council tax support from April 2013, which vary at the English local authority level. See appendix section D.2 of Browne, Hood and Joyce (2013) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015- and changes in employment to vary by industry and region, all according to forecasts from Oxford Economics. In Section V, we examine the sensitivities of our results to variation in the OBR's forecasts and under scenarios where the earnings distribution widens or narrows.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Short‐ and Medium‐Term Impacts of the Recession on the UK Income Distribution*

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We study the short-and medium-term impacts of the recent recession on the distribution of net household income in the UK. We document trends in the distribution of income during and immediately after the economy's 6.3 per cent contraction between 2008Q1 and 2009Q2. We then use a tax and benefit microsimulation model combined with macroeconomic and As in other countries, immediate impacts of the recession on net household incomes are remarkably hard to detect, but the pain was merely delayed until 2010-11 and beyond. We find that the major difference between income groups is in the timing of the reductions in income, rather than in their magnitude. For those in the middle and upper parts of the distribution, dependent mainly on labour market income, falls in real income happened largely between 2009-10 and 2011-12. For those towards the bottom, dependent more on benefit incomes, falls in real income will happen largely as a result of the post-recession fiscal tightening between 2010-11 and 2015-16. We explore the sensitivity of the results to different scenarios for employment and earnings: the central and qualitative conclusions prove robust. Policy points• We project that the reductions in household income between 2007-08 and 2015-16 will be spread quite evenly across the income distribution.• The timing of the recession's impact is very different across income groups. Those on middle and higher incomes, largely dependent on labour market incomes, were hit immediately after the recession as real earnings fell sharply. Lower-income families, and in particular those with children, tended to fare less badly than others over that period, but are being hit relatively hard by the tax and benefit measures during the post-recession fiscal consolidation.• The large planned net 'takeaway' from households during the fiscal consolidation is a major driver of the pattern of income changes that we expect to see up to 2015-16. Qualitatively, our conclusions are therefore robust to the direct impacts of quite large deviations in employment and earnings from their forecast levels in the medium term.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Short‐ and Medium‐Term Impacts of the Recession on the UK Income Distribution*

et al. 2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A recent analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that relative poverty (defi ned as below 60 per cent of median income) will rise among children, working-age parents and working-age non-parents over the decade 2011-2020 as a result of post-2010 government reforms to tax and benefi t policies (Browne et al 2013). The projected rises include a 6 percentage-point (or 1.1 million) rise in relative poverty among children, close to a 4-point rise among working-age parents and a 2-point rise among working-age non-parents (Figure 11.5).…”

Section: Rise In Povertymentioning

confidence: 99%