Cheatgrass Percent Cover Change: Comparing Recent Estimates to Climate Change−Driven Predictions in the Northern Great Basin

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.

doi:10.1016/j.rama.2016.03.002

Cited by 68 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…For example, increased temperatures could increase evapotranspiration and aridity resulting in less favorable conditions for cheatgrass (Bradley et al., ). However, climate change predictions for greater amounts of fall, winter and early‐spring precipitation (Abatzoglou & Kolden, ), may create even greater cheatgrass build up (Boyte, Wylie, & Major, ). Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may also exacerbate the increased productivity of cheatgrass, as well as native perennial grasses, and thus increase fine fuel development (Chambers et al., ; Smith, Huxman, Zitzer, & Charlet, ; Ziska et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Pilliod

Welty

Arkle

2017

Ecology and Evolution

144

153

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Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi‐arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non‐native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time‐lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26‐year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non‐native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non‐native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35‐year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Pilliod

Welty

Arkle

2017

Ecology and Evolution

144

153

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“…Cheatgrass is projected to spread and dominate where it is already well adapted and where climate changes could increase fire frequency (Abatzoglou and Kolden , Boyte et al. , Coates et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the northern Great Basin, climate change models predict lower precipitation in October, April, and May, while projecting higher precipitation for winter and early spring and warmer temperatures for fall, winter, and spring (Boyte et al. ). Based on these projections and the associations in Table , we expect that some sites will move from higher to intermediate cheatgrass resistance due to warmer springs or drier winters and early springs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience and resistance in sagebrush ecosystems are associated with seasonal soil temperature and water availability

et al. 2018

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Invasion and dominance of exotic grasses and increased fire frequency threaten native ecosystems worldwide. In the Great Basin region of the western United States, woody and herbaceous fuel treatments are implemented to decrease the effects of wildfire and increase sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to exotic annual grasses. High cover of the exotic annual cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) after treatments increases fine fuels, which in turn increases the risk of passing over a biotic threshold to a state of increased wildfire frequency and conversion to cheatgrass dominance. Sagebrush ecosystem resilience to wildfire and resistance to cheatgrass depend on climatic conditions and abundance of perennial herbaceous species that compete with cheatgrass. In this study, we used longer‐term data to evaluate the relationships among soil climate conditions, perennial herbaceous cover, and cheatgrass cover following fuel management treatments across the environmental gradients that characterize sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin. We examined the effects of woody and herbaceous fuel treatments on soil temperature, soil water availability (13–30 and 50 cm depths), and native and exotic plant cover on six sagebrush sites lacking piñon (Pinus spp.) or juniper (Juniperus spp.) tree expansion and 11 sagebrush sites with tree expansion. Both prescribed fire and mechanical treatments increased soil water availability on woodland sites and perennial herbaceous cover on some woodland and sagebrush sites. Prescribed fire also slightly increased soil temperatures and especially increased cheatgrass cover compared to no treatment and mechanical treatments on most sites. Non‐metric dimensional scaling ordination and decision tree partition analysis indicated that sites with warmer late springs and warmer and wetter falls had higher cover of cheatgrass. Sites with wetter winters and early springs (March–April) had higher cover of perennial herbs. Our findings suggest that site resistance to cheatgrass after fire and fuel control treatments decreases with a warmer and drier climate. This emphasizes the need for management actions to maintain and enhance perennial herb cover, such as implementing appropriate grazing management, and revegetating sites that have low abundance of perennial herbs in conjunction with fuel control treatments.

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“…To quantify vegetation height, we used the mean value of each vegetation height class (e.g., 0.25 m for height class 0–0.5 m) and calculated the average vegetation height of sagebrush for all pixels around a lek that remained unburned after fire. For cheatgrass cover, we employed a 13‐year (2000–2013) cheatgrass database of the Great Basin which quantifies cheatgrass cover (0%–100%) at 250‐m resolution (Boyte, Wylie, & Major, ). We calculated the area surrounding leks with >8% cheatgrass cover because few active leks have >8% cheatgrass cover (Johnson et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of cheatgrass cover, burned areas around a lek with elevation <2,000 m were categorized as having unsuitable cheatgrass cover (>8% cover) for sage‐grouse because burned areas are highly susceptible to invasion by cheatgrass (Chambers, Roundy, Blank, Meyer, & Whittaker, ; Jessop & Anderson, ). Burned areas >2,000 m in elevation were categorized as having suitable cheatgrass cover (<8% cover), because cheatgrass does not seem to invade above this elevation (Boyte et al, ). Vegetation height of burned areas and unsuitable vegetation types, such as forests and juniper woodlands, was set to 0 m, as sagebrush stands often burn completely, leaving no remnant vegetation after fire (Baker, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential importance of unburned islands as refugia for the persistence of wildlife species in fire‐prone ecosystems

Steenvoorden

Meddens

Martinez

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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The persistence of wildlife species in fire‐prone ecosystems is under increasing pressure from global change, including alterations in fire regimes caused by climate change. However, unburned islands might act to mitigate negative effects of fire on wildlife populations by providing habitat in which species can survive and recolonize burned areas. Nevertheless, the characteristics of unburned islands and their role as potential refugia for the postfire population dynamics of wildlife species remain poorly understood. We used a newly developed unburned island database of the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014 to assess the postfire response of the greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a large gallinaceous bird inhabiting the sagebrush ecosystems of North America, in which wildfires are common. Specifically, we tested whether prefire and postfire male attendance trends at mating locations (leks) differed between burned and unburned areas, and to what extent postfire habitat composition at multiple scales could explain such trends. Using time‐series of male counts at leks together with spatially explicit fire history information, we modeled whether male attendance was negatively affected by fire events. Results revealed that burned leks often exhibit sustained decline in male attendance, whereas leks within unburned islands or >1.5 km away from fire perimeters tend to show stable or increasing trends. Analyses of postfire habitat composition further revealed that sagebrush vegetation height within 0.8 km around leks, as well elevation within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km around leks, had a positive effect on male attendance trends. Moreover, the proportion of the landscape with cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) cover >8% had negative effects on male attendance trends within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km of leks, respectively. Synthesis and applications . Our results indicate that maintaining areas of unburned vegetation within and outside fire perimeters may be crucial for sustaining sage‐grouse populations following wildfire. The role of unburned islands as fire refugia requires more attention in wildlife management and conservation planning because their creation, protection, and maintenance may positively affect wildlife population dynamics in fire‐prone ecosystems.

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Cheatgrass Percent Cover Change: Comparing Recent Estimates to Climate Change−Driven Predictions in the Northern Great Basin

Cited by 68 publications

References 34 publications

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Resilience and resistance in sagebrush ecosystems are associated with seasonal soil temperature and water availability

The potential importance of unburned islands as refugia for the persistence of wildlife species in fire‐prone ecosystems

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