Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade

Trentini, Filippo; Pariani, Elena; Bella, Antonino; Diurno, Giulio; Crottogini, Lucia; Rizzo, Caterina; Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco

doi:10.1186/s12889-021-12426-9

Cited by 18 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Contacts among age classes followed a published contact matrix for Spain, part of a larger study that analyzed 26 European countries [21]. The latent period was set to 1.5 days and the infectious period to 1.2 days; hence, the influenza generation time was 2.7 days [22].…”

Section: Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The distribution of contact rates was chosen on the basis of the dominant (or codominant) strains in Spain in the years 2010-2019 [22,23]. In the absence of transmission rates for Spain, Italian transmission rates for the overall population were used as a proxy, using data for the same years in which matching strains were observed in the two markets (Table 1).…”

Section: Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Economic Evaluation of the Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared with Standard-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Spanish Older Adult Population

et al. 2022

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Standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) are designed to provide protection against all four influenza strains. Adjuvanted QIV (aQIV), indicated for individuals aged 65+ years, combines MF59® adjuvant (an oil-in-water emulsion of squalene oil) with a standard dose of antigen, and is designed to produce stronger and longer immune response, especially in the elderly where immunosenescence reduces vaccine effectiveness. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of aQIV vs. egg-based standard-dose QIV (QIVe) in the elderly population, from the payer and societal perspective in Spain. A dynamic transmission model, which accounts for herd protection, was used to predict the number of medically attended infections in Spain. A decision tree structure was used to forecast influenza-related costs and benefits. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visit, hospitalization, work absenteeism, mortality, and associated utilities and costs were extracted from Spanish and European published literature. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) was sourced from two different meta-analyses: the first meta-analysis was informed by laboratory-confirmed influenza studies only, resulting in a rVE = 34.6% (CI95% 2–66%) in favor of aQIV; the second meta-analysis included real world evidence influenza-related medical encounters outcomes, resulting in a rVE = 13.9% (CI95% 4.2–23.5%) in benefit of aQIV. All costs were expressed in 2021 euros. Results indicate that replacing QIVe with aQIV in the Spanish elderly population would prevent on average 43,664 influenza complicated cases, 1111 hospitalizations, and 569 deaths (with a rVE = 34.6%) or 19,104 influenza complicated cases, 486 hospitalizations, and 252 deaths (with a rVE = 13.9%). When the rVE of aQIV vs. QIVe is 34.6%, the incremental cost per quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained was €2240 from the payer; from the societal perspective, aQIV was cost saving compared with QIVe. If the rVE was 13.9%, the incremental cost per QALY was €6694 and €3936 from the payer and societal perspective, respectively. Sensitivity analyses validated the robustness of these findings. Results indicate that replacing QIVe with aQIV in the Spanish elderly population is a cost-effective strategy for the Spanish healthcare system.

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Section: Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Economic Evaluation of the Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared with Standard-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Spanish Older Adult Population

et al. 2022

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“…A deterministic transmission model was already published [ 13 ] and used to simulate the population-level dynamics of influenza infection ( Box 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The New Quadrivalent Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine for the Italian Elderly: A Health Technology Assessment

Calabrò

Boccalini

Panatto

et al. 2022

IJERPH

Self Cite

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Background. The elderly, commonly defined as subjects aged ≥65 years, are among the at-risk subjects recommended for annual influenza vaccination in European countries. Currently, two new vaccines are available for this population: the MF59-adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) and the high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (hdQIV). Their multidimensional assessment might maximize the results in terms of achievable health benefits. Therefore, we carried out a Health Technology Assessment (HTA) of the aQIV by adopting a multidisciplinary policy-oriented approach to evaluate clinical, economic, organizational, and ethical implications for the Italian elderly. Methods. A HTA was conducted in 2020 to analyze influenza burden; characteristics, efficacy, and safety of aQIV and other available vaccines for the elderly; cost-effectiveness of aQIV; and related organizational and ethical implications. Comprehensive literature reviews/analyses were performed, and a transmission model was developed in order to address the above issues. Results. In Italy, the influenza burden on the elderly is high and from 77.7% to 96.1% of influenza-related deaths occur in the elderly. All available vaccines are effective and safe; however, aQIV, such as the adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV), has proved more immunogenic and effective in the elderly. From the third payer’s perspective, but also from the societal one, the use of aQIV in comparison with egg-based standard QIV (eQIV) in the elderly population is cost-effective. The appropriateness of the use of available vaccines as well as citizens’ knowledge and attitudes remain a challenge for a successful vaccination campaign. Conclusions. The results of this project provide decision-makers with important evidence on the aQIV and support with scientific evidence on the appropriate use of vaccines in the elderly.

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“…8,36.8,37.5,44.2,41.7,36.7,35.2,32.7,25.9,26.6,29.0,25.4,23.3,28.2,31.0,38.2,56.5,73.3,80.2,80.4,64. 6,76.1,99.1,100.0,85.3,71.7,48.3,31.3,21.6,16.5,11.7,9.9,8.0,6.6,4.6,4.2) y2 <c (32,30,28,32,31,42,46,50,50,51,67,48,51,48,50,38,66,53,50,35,26,40,27,26,23,17,11,18,11,7,7,12,8,7,15,23,26,23,31,26,39,36,42,25,19,15,5,6,2,5,4,3,1,2,2) z2 <c(29, 21,27,31,36,45,44,52,49,55,78,100,5...…”

Section: X2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…COVID-19 pandemic in Italy [7-9], infodemiology and infoveillance [10], seasonal flu in Italy [11, 12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Paper Framework to Increase Reproducibility: Example Relating to Web Pharmacovigilance During COVID-19 in Italy

Rovetta¹,

Castaldo²

2022

Preprint

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Reproducibility and transparency represent some of the main problems of scientific publishing. Currently, the editorial requests of academic journals and peer reviewers can divert the authors’ attention from an accurate description of the methods adopted, thus compromising these fundamental scientific aspects. This paves the way for the voluntary falsification of data to obtain striking results. Furthermore, the excessive expansion of introduction and discussion sections increases the likelihood of introducing evaluation bias. Since peer reviewers are generally unpaid for their work, they are not required to reproduce the analysis of the studies they review but only to assess methodological accuracy, reproducibility, and plausibility. Therefore, this paper aims to emphasize that the methods and results sections are the central parts of quantitative analysis. In this regard, we firmly believe that the peer review process should, whenever possible, reproduce the analysis from scratch. Consequently, authors must be required to provide a simple and straightforward tutorial to reproduce the analysis as it was conceived both methodologically and chronologically. Ideas, insights, and discussions among the authors must also be reported. This complete description can be provided as integrative material published with the main manuscript, which is nothing more than a summary of methods and results. Such a procedure would represent the first step to improving the quality of scientific publications, waiting for unscientific concepts such as “publish or perish” to be eradicated from the academic world. In this manuscript, we provide a framework that can serve as a fully reproducible and transparent example of analysis. The aim is to investigate the Italian netizens’ web interest in paracetamol, ibuprofen, and nimesulide from 2015 to 2022, searching for causal associations with the fever symptom and COVID-19. The infodemiological tool “Google Trends” has been used to collect the data. Correlational analysis showed plausible causal associations between paracetamol, ibuprofen, and fever due to seasonal flu and COVID-19 and, although to a minor extent, COVID-19 vaccines side effects. Paracetamol was the most historically searched substance. However, the trend of ibuprofen has caught up with that of paracetamol in 2022. Interest in paracetamol, ibuprofen, and nimesulide increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic period. We conclude that web pharmacovigilance via Google Trends can provide relevant evidence for monitoring drug intake in relation to epidemiologically significant events such as epidemics and mass vaccination campaigns.

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Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade

Cited by 18 publications

References 47 publications

An Economic Evaluation of the Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared with Standard-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Spanish Older Adult Population

An Economic Evaluation of the Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared with Standard-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Spanish Older Adult Population

The New Quadrivalent Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine for the Italian Elderly: A Health Technology Assessment

A New Paper Framework to Increase Reproducibility: Example Relating to Web Pharmacovigilance During COVID-19 in Italy

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