Characterizing Meteorological Forecast Impact on Microgrid Optimization Performance and Design

Abstract

A microgrid consists of electrical generation sources, energy storage assets, loads, and the ability to function independently, or connect and share power with other electrical grids. Thefocus of this work is on the behavior of a microgrid, with both diesel generator and photovoltaic resources, whose heating or cooling loads are influenced by local meteorological conditions. Themicrogrid's fuel consumption and energy storage requirement were then examined as a function of the atmospheric conditions used by its energy management strategy (EMS). A fuel-optimal EMS, able to exploit meteorological forecasts, was developed and evaluated using a hybrid microgrid simulation. Weather forecast update periods ranged from 15 min to 24 h. Four representative meteorological sky classifications (clear, partly cloudy, overcast, or monsoon) were considered. Forall four sky classifications, fuel consumption and energy storage requirements increased linearly with the increasing weather forecast interval. Larger forecast intervals lead to degraded weather forecasts, requiring more frequent charging/discharging of the energy storage, increasing both the fuel consumption and energy storage design requirements. The significant contributions of this work include the optimal EMS and an approach for quantifying the meteorological forecast effects on fuel consumption and energy storage requirements on microgrid performance. The findings of this study indicate that the forecast interval used by the EMS affected both fuel consumption and energy storage requirements, and that the sensitivity of these effects depended on the 24-hour sky conditions.

Converting a Water Pressurized Network in a Small Town into a Solar Power Water System

“…Investigators and practitioners have developed projects optimizing PV systems [19,20] and studied the influence of meteorological variables [21][22][23]. Researchers have presented procedures in photovoltaic generation forecasting to mitigate uncertainty [24][25][26], with the aim to incorporate the spatial correlation of PV modules [27] or reducing fuel consumption in a hybrid system (with a diesel generator and photovoltaic resources) [28]. In the water industry, many works have been performed in pressurized water networks [19,[29][30][31] and in pressurized irrigation networks [32][33][34] where the energy consumption profiles influence the PV installation [35][36][37].…”

Implementation of Different PV Forecast Approaches in a MultiGood MicroGrid: Modeling and Experimental Results

“…In another work, [20], PV forecast options are presented discussing potential applications within microgrids, but without any simulations. Finally, a persistent PV forecast is adopted as an update of the forecast every 3 h and performance is evaluated through simulations of an on-grid case [21].…”

Analysis of Options of a Fuzzy Selection System for Prediction of the Performance of a Hybrid Power Plant

“…Основной объём публикаций посвящён техническим и экономическим вопросам функционирования электростанций, в которых первичные метеорологические данные и прогнозирование погоды, и влияние их на выработку электроэнергии упоминаются, но играют второстепенную роль. В зарубежных экономических публикациях большое внимание часто уделяется ценообразованию, вопросам окупаемости и формирования тарифов на электроэнергию, что не всегда может быть применено в российской практике [1][2][3][4]. К актуальным задачам отечественной возобновляемой энергетики можно отнести разработку компонентов системы принятия решений, позволяющих оценить производительность электростанции в краткосрочном, среднесрочном планировании, на основе прогноза погоды.…”