Characterizing Intent Maneuvers from Operational Data: Step Towards Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Garcia-Chico, Jose L.; Vivona, Robert A.; Cate, Karen

doi:10.2514/6.2008-6520

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…However, real measures (over the trajectory) will be required to improve reliability, react to unplanned conditions and thus maintain the expected capacity. Trajectories are degraded because of environmental and operational uncertainties (Garcia-Chico et al , 2008; Casado et al , 2012). Sharing, updating and coordinating changes in a trajectory become necessary to ensure reliability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These constraints are called TWs and require the capability of developing accurate and reliable trajectory predictions (Rentas et al , 2009). These predictions need to consider both external disturbances to the aircraft and internal uncertainty sources (Garcia-Chico et al , 2008; Casado et al , 2012; Pabst et al , 2013). These disturbances and uncertainties may cause a degradation in the trajectory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Practical implementation of 4D-trajectories in air traffic management: system requirements and time windows monitoring

Rodríguez–Sanz

Puchol

Pérez–Castán

et al. 2020

AEAT

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Purpose The current air traffic management (ATM) operational approach is changing; “time” is now integrated as an additional fourth dimension on trajectories. This notion will impose on aircraft the compliance of accurate arrival times over designated checkpoints (CPs), called time windows (TWs). This paper aims to clarify the basic requirements and foundations for the practical implementation of this functional framework. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews the operational deployment of 4D trajectories, by defining its relationship with other concepts and systems of the future ATM and communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS) context. This allows to establish the main tools that should be considered to ease the application of the 4D-trajectories approach. This paper appraises how 4D trajectories must be managed and planned (negotiation, synchronization, modification and verification processes). Then, based on the evolution of a simulated 4D trajectory, the necessary corrective measures by evaluating the degradation tolerances and conditions are described and introduced. Findings The proposed TWs model can control the time tolerance within less than 100 s along the passing CPs of a generic trajectory, which is in line with the expected future ATM time-performance requirements. Originality/value The main contribution of this work is the provision of a holistic vision of the systems and concepts that will be necessary to implement the new 4D-trajectory concept efficiently, thus enhancing performance. It also proposes tolerance windows for trajectory degradation, to understand both when an update is necessary and what are the conditions required for pilots and air traffic controllers to provide this update.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Practical implementation of 4D-trajectories in air traffic management: system requirements and time windows monitoring

Rodríguez–Sanz

Puchol

Pérez–Castán

et al. 2020

AEAT

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The benefits of 4D trajectories are (Enea and Porretta, 2012; Gardi et al , 2013; SESAR, 2015; FAA, 2016): increased reliability of air traffic operations because of improved predictability of overall traffic; optimal operations – aircraft using preferred routes and levels; increased service levels because of ground–ground and air–ground interoperability, and fewer trajectory distortions; potential absorption of delays; enhanced safety due to reduced air traffic controllers’ workload – fewer conflicts, strategic management, information-rich environment with data in advance; cost reductions, e.g. fuel and/or time; increased airspace capacity; and reduced environmental impact via less emissions and noise. …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management

Rodríguez–Sanz

Comendador

Valdés

et al. 2019

AEAT

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Purpose The use of the 4D trajectory operational concept in the future air traffic management (ATM) system will require the aircraft to meet very accurately an arrival time over a designated checkpoint. To do this, time intervals known as time windows (TW) are defined. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to characterise these TWs and to manage the uncertainty associated with the evolution of 4D trajectories. Design/methodology/approach 4D trajectories are modelled using a point mass model and EUROCONTROL’s BADA methodology. The authors stochastically evaluate the variability of the parameters that influence 4D trajectories using Monte Carlo simulation. This enables the authors to delimit TWs for several checkpoints. Finally, the authors set out a causal model, based on a Bayesian network approach, to evaluate the impact of variations in fundamental parameters at the chosen checkpoints. Findings The initial results show that the proposed TW model limits the deviation in time to less than 27 s at the checkpoints of an en-route segment (300 NM). Practical implications The objective of new trajectory-based operations is to efficiently and strategically manage the expected increase in air traffic volumes and to apply tactical interventions as a last resort only. We need new tools to support 4D trajectory management functions such as strategic and collaborative planning. The authors propose a novel approach for to ensure aircraft punctuality. Originality/value The main contribution of the paper is the development of a model to deal with uncertainty and to increase predictability in 4D trajectories, which are key elements of the future airspace operational environment.

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“…This constrains are called Time Windows (TWs) and require the capability of developing accurate and reliable trajectory predictions [12]. These predictions need to consider external disturbances to the aircraft and internal uncertainty sources [10], [13], [14]. These disturbances and uncertainties may cause a degradation in the trajectory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air traffic management based on 4D-trajectories: requirements and practical implementation

et al. 2019

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The current Air Traffic Management (ATM) functional approach is changing: ‘time’ is now integrated as an additional fourth dimension on trajectories. This notion will impose on aircraft the compliance of accurately arrival times over designated checkpoints, called Time Windows (TWs). In this context, we review the operational concept of 4D-trajectories, by initially developing an analysis of basic requirements for their implementation in the Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) systems and then by investigating their management in the future ATM context. We focus on defining the relationships between 4D-trajectories and other concepts and systems of the future ATM framework, and the needs that it will require for its application, detailing the main tools, programs and ATM/CNS systems that must be deployed. We appraise how 4D-trajectories must be managed and planned (negotiation, synchronization, modification and verification processes). Then, based on the degradation of a 4D-trajectory, we define and introduce the necessary corrective measures by evaluating the degradation tolerances and conditions.

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Characterizing Intent Maneuvers from Operational Data: Step Towards Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Cited by 10 publications

References 9 publications

Practical implementation of 4D-trajectories in air traffic management: system requirements and time windows monitoring

Practical implementation of 4D-trajectories in air traffic management: system requirements and time windows monitoring

4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management

Air traffic management based on 4D-trajectories: requirements and practical implementation

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