Characterizing Drought Using the Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Concept

Maity, Rajib; Sharma, Ashish; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Chanda, Kironmala

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000639

Cited by 47 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 67 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Many methods have been proposed and used to determine the optimal copula model (Genest et al , ; Maity et al , , ), and the Bayesian model selection (BCS) method proposed by Huard et al () is used to evaluate copulas in this study. The BCS approach consists of the following steps: Assume that ψ is the set of all copula functions and ψ Q is a limited subset selected from ψ ( ψ Q ∈ ψ ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wet and dry spell analysis using copulas

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate variability modulates spatio‐temporal variability of dry spells (DSs) and wet spells (WSs) within a river basin and will affect water resources management practices leading to various impacts on the socio‐economic development in river basins. In this study, we evaluated spatio‐temporal variability of DS and WS in Huai River basin (HRB), China, by developing copula‐based severity‐duration‐frequency (SDF) curves. The result shows that the upper reach and the southern part of middle reach of HRB are prone to both DS and WS; however, the duration and severity of WS are comparatively higher in comparison to DS. It was observed that DS is more frequent in spring and summer, whereas WS in summer and autumn. The choice of copula plays an important role in deriving the SDF curves, and an inappropriately chosen copula function may result in a large bias of SDF estimation. The arch12 copula was found to be the best choice in the majority of stations for deriving the SDF curves. The constructed SDF curves primarily shows two major patterns for DS and WS, i.e. concave down pattern and convex up pattern. The frequency of extreme DS decreases from 1960s to 1990s, and increases after 2000s, while the frequency of extreme WS increases from 1970s to 1990s and then decreases from 1990s to 2000s. The results in this study can provide useful information for designing conservation structures and to develop water allocation strategies at different temporal scales.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wet and dry spell analysis using copulas

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The multi-index using water supply performance indices have already been tested in previous research. The drought management index (DMI) was developed using resilience and vulnerability, that account for the ability of the system to recover from drought damage [30,31]. On the contrary, the JDMI inspired by the DMI is estimated based on D and S. Thus, the JDMI can reflect the drought aspects that cause damage to the system.…”

Section: Drought Events and Water Supply Performance Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Nonstationary Joint Drought Management Index

Kim

Park

2019

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As the environment changes, the stationarity assumption in hydrological analysis has become questionable. If nonstationarity of an observed time series is not fully considered when handling climate change scenarios, the outcomes of statistical analyses would be invalid in practice. This study established bivariate time-varying copula models for risk analysis based on the generalized additive models in location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) theory to develop the nonstationary joint drought management index (JDMI). Two kinds of daily streamflow data from the Soyang River basin were used; one is that observed during 1976-2005, and the other is that simulated for the period 2011-2099 from 26 climate change scenarios. The JDMI quantified the multi-index of reliability and vulnerability of hydrological drought, both of which cause damage to the hydrosystem. Hydrological drought was defined as the low-flow events that occur when streamflow is equal to or less than Q80 calculated from observed data, allowing future drought risk to be assessed and compared with the past. Then, reliability and vulnerability were estimated based on the duration and magnitude of the events, respectively. As a result, the JDMI provided the expected duration and magnitude quantities of drought or water deficit.The GAMLSS framework has been applied to hydrological frequency analysis to provide the design criteria for managing future drought risk [11,12]. Bivariate frequency analysis based on the GAMLSS-copula model was also conducted and proved useful in hydrological prediction [13][14][15]. GAMLSS can be useful to estimate nonstationary index. For example, Wang et al. [16] proposed the time-dependent standardized precipitation index and Bazrafshan and Hejabi [17] suggested using the nonstationary reconnaissance drought index.This study performed statistical analyses with 26 climate change scenarios for the Soyang River basin in South Korea to construct the bivariate time-varying copula models based on GAMLSS theory. Copula functions were used to combine the drought information estimated from low-flow events, which were reliability and vulnerability. Then a new drought index, joint drought management index (JDMI), was developed based on the nonstationary copula model. The potential drought or water supply failure events were quantified as durations and magnitudes by JDMI-based risk assessment. Study Area and Data

show abstract

“…Overall water sustainability index for the entire system can be calculated by combining the reliability, resilience and relative vulnerability as suggested by various researchers (Hashimoto et al (1982); Maity et al 2012;Sandoval-Solis et al 2010) and as shown below ( ) Once the WSI for each district is estimated, a distance based approach can be adopted for estimating the overall WSI for the entire state. It is based on the index of optimism which is subjective in nature.…”

Section: Water Sustainability Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to American Meteorological Society droughts are classified into four categories, i.e., meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic. Meteorological drought is associated with inadequacy of normal precipitation, agricultural drought is related to soil moisture or wilting point of the site specific cropping system, hydrological drought is related to the inadequacy of water resources to meet present demands, and socioeconomic drought is based on ensuing economic consequences for the region (Maity et al 2012). Drought is a climatic entity and its occurrence is a natural phenomena.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distance Based Water Sustainability Assessment Using SPI for the State of Chhattisgarh in India

Kansal¹,

Chandniha²,

Tyagi³

2015

World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Precipitation is one of the key parameter in water resources sustainability of a watershed. The wetness and dryness of a watershed can be represented in terms of positive or negative values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which is a probability index that is used to quantify rainfall variability in a particular area. On the basis of SPI, one can define various meteorological conditions in a watershed such as extremely wet, very wet, moderate wet, near normal, moderate dry, severe dry and extreme dry. In this study, SPI based water sustainability assessment has been advocated for the state of Chhattisgarh in India. Chhattisgarh state in India falls under humid sub-tropical region. It is a central state of India which lies between 17°39'40"N to 24°16'52"N latitude and 80°12'2"E to 84°35'49"E longitude. The total geographical area of the state is about 135,097 Km 2 . One of the major problem in this state is that most of its major rivers have torrential regimes characterized by high water flows for short durations such as three to four months during monsoon (June to September). During these months, about 80% of annual runoff flows, floods and droughts are the main characteristics of the annual flow in many of the state's rivers. In this study, first the annual SPI for all the districts in this state has been estimated. Using the SPI, water resources reliability, resiliency and vulnerability for each district is estimated. Thereafter, a distance based approach has been suggested for estimating the water sustainability index (WSI) for all districts. Finally, overall WSI has been estimated using distance based multi criteria approach. It has been found that the overall WSI for the state of Chhattisgarh in India is about 0.47 which is indicative of moderate water sustainability conditions.

show abstract

Characterizing Drought Using the Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Concept

Cited by 47 publications

References 67 publications

Wet and dry spell analysis using copulas

Wet and dry spell analysis using copulas

Future Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Nonstationary Joint Drought Management Index

Distance Based Water Sustainability Assessment Using SPI for the State of Chhattisgarh in India

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About