Characterization of uncertainty in maximum tidal elevation near Bangladesh coastline due to uncertain sea level rise

Abstract

The Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna delta is vulnerable to sea level rise from global warming. Based on sea level rise predictions for the year 2100 given in the 6th Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we examine the effect of uncertainty in sea level rise on maximum tidal elevation statistics at several locations along the Bangladesh coastline using a discretized derived distribution approach. For five IPCC scenarios, the standard deviation in maximum tidal elevation including sea level rise is predicted to increase by between 3% and 61% at three different locations for a 41% increase in the standard deviation of mean sea level rise. By excluding the linear effect of sea level rise, the increase in the standard deviation of maximum tidal elevation is found to vary spatially from 2% to 68% with a 41% increase in the standard deviation of sea level rise.

Flood risks from failure of infrastructure

“…Extensive embankment construction has been undertaken along the Bangladeshi coastline to protect people and properties in nearby cities and villages from flood inundation and land erosion. Sarwar and Borthwick (2023) develop a derived distribution approach to assess uncertainty in extreme water levels. The analytic version of the derived distribution approach, where the dependence of the output parameter on the input parameter is known, has been used for 50 years in flood frequency and water resources estimations.…”