Characterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tree analysis

Abstract

Characterizing the spatial distribution of ruptures from historical and recent earthquakes is key to understanding the seismic cycle of large earthquakes in subduction zones, and thus to assessing the potential risks associated with future earthquakes. Central Chile (35$^{\circ}$S-38$^{\circ}$S) has been continuously affected by large earthquakes, such as the 2010 Maule (Mw 8.8) and the 1835 earthquakes witnessed by Robert Fitzroy (HMS Beagle captain). Here, we identify the rupture pattern and tsunami propagation of the 1751, 1835, and 2010 mega-earthquakes, events that overlapped in central Chile, by compiling historical records and applying robust statistical tools. We used an adaptation of a logic tree methodology to generate random sources of slip distribution for each event, constrained by tsunami and deformation data. We find that the three events studied have different slip peaks. The 1751 earthquake has the largest slip with a maximum patch of $\sim$ 26 m, while the 2010 and 1835 earthquakes reach slips of $\sim$ 16 m and $\sim$ 10 m, respectively. Our results show that a part of the segment between 36$^{\circ}$S and 37$^{\circ}$S was consistently affected by large earthquakes, but with different slip and depth. The northern part of the segment accumulated energy for at least 300 years and was released by the 2010 earthquake. This work provides important information for identifying rupture patterns between historical and recent earthquakes, and highlights the importance of extending the time scale of earthquake slip distribution analyses to multiple cycles to describe both earthquake characteristics and their spatial relationship, and thus gain a better understanding of seismic hazard.