Characterization of COVID-19’s Impact on Mobility and Short-Term Prediction of Public Transport Demand in a Mid-Size City in Spain

Abstract

COVID-19 has dramatically struck each section of our society: health, economy, employment, and mobility. This work presents a data-driven characterization of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public and private mobility in a mid-size city in Spain (Fuenlabrada). Our analysis used real data collected from the public transport smart card system and a Bluetooth traffic monitoring network, from February to September 2020, thus covering relevant phases of the pandemic. Our results show that, at the peak of the pandemic, public and private mobility dramatically decreased to 95% and 86% of their pre-COVID-19 values, after which the latter experienced a faster recovery. In addition, our analysis of daily patterns evidenced a clear change in the behavior of users towards mobility during the different phases of the pandemic. Based on these findings, we developed short-term predictors of future public transport demand to provide operators and mobility managers with accurate information to optimize their service and avoid crowded areas. Our prediction model achieved a high performance for pre- and post-state-of-alarm phases. Consequently, this work contributes to enlarging the knowledge about the impact of pandemic on mobility, providing a deep analysis about how it affected each transport mode in a mid-size city.

A study on the factors that influenced the choice of transport mode before, during, and after the first lockdown in Milan, Italy

“…Many recent studies have also studied the transport mode behaviour after lockdown. Findings indicate that there would be a high tendency towards using unshared modes of transport such as private car and active mode after the pandemic ( Awad-Núñez et al, 2021 ; Chen et al, 2022 ; Das et al, 2021 ; Echaniz et al, 2021 ; Harrington & Hadjiconstantinou, 2022 ; Luan et al, 2021 ; Monterde-i-Bort et al, 2022 ; Nikiforiadis et al, 2020 ; Nikiforiadis et al, 2022 ; Rodríguez González et al, 2021 ; Schmidt et al, 2021 ; Shibayama et al, 2021 ; Tarasi et al, 2021 ; Thomas et al, 2021 ). Monterde-i-Bort et al (2022) based on a survey (N = 636) from ten countries, reported that the use of private car and walking rebounded and it almost went back to normal (before the pandemic).…”

Accessibility and Essential Travel: Public Transport Reliance Among Senior Citizens During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Most big data approaches to understanding mobilities in the COVID-19 pandemic focus on aggregated levels of information, for example total demand by mode, or area or station. Sources used are of uncertain socio-demographic provenance, and demand is often estimated in aggregate terms by mode or time (Cartenì et al, 2021 ; Rodríguez González et al, 2021 ). Big data, non-survey studies that successfully link individual trips to social and geographical characteristics at the micro level remain rare.…”

Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility

“…The impact of COVID-19 on transportation demand was greatest in the early stages of the outbreak, and early studies focused on this. Gonzalez et al (2021) found that public and private mobilities at the peak of the pandemic dropped to 95% and 86% of pre-COVID-19 levels in Spain. C2SMART…”