Characteristics of Tropical-Cyclone Turbulence and Intensity Predictability

Abstract

The tropical cyclone (TC) is a multiscale nonlinear system in which any small-scale perturbation could amplify and progressively influence larger scales, resulting in T-C intensity variability. This type of upscale-error growth, termed the "real butterfly effect" (Palmer et al., 2014), exists in various fluid-flow systems and determines their intrinsic predictability. Unlike deterministic systems whose predictability is governed by Lyapunov exponents and attractor invariants (e.g.,