The 17 March 2006 eruption from Raoul Island (Kermadec arc, north of New Zealand) is interpreted as a magmatichydrothermal event triggered by shaking associated with a swarm of local earthquakes. The eruption, which tragically claimed the life of New Zealand Department of Conservation Ranger Mark Kearney, occurred without significant volcanic seismicity or any of the precursory responses the volcanic hydrothermal system exhibited prior to a similarly sized eruption in 1964.Preliminary evidence suggests that the absence of precursory behavior is probably the consequence of hydrothermal sealing of the volcanic conduit since the 1964 eruption, and points to potential hazards associated with quiescent oceanic island volcanoes.
Precursory Behaviour Through TimeRaoul is a basaltic-andesite volcano that last erupted in 1964 from vents at Green Lake (Figure 1). The 1964 eruption occurred after 11 days of intense seismicity, ground cracking, and stark changes in the hydrothermal system, including a 6-meter rise in Green Lake and increased fumarolic activity [Healy et al., 1965]. Pre-eruption earthquakes had S-P intervals of 1-2 seconds (focal distances of 6-15 kilometers). Low-frequency (0.5-1 hertz) tremor first began some 10 days before the eruption, which was phreatic in nature [Lloyd and Nathan, 1981].The 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake killed 87,300 people and disrupted the lives of several million more. By current estimates, 30,000 still live in camps sited more in accordance with short term expedience than with freedom from risk of natural hazards. In December 2006, the international aid community expressed fears that 50,000 people in Northwest Frontier Province may leave their mountain homes this winter as landslides and avalanches block access roads. As the focus of humanitarian assistance shifts toward restoration of Kashmir's infrastructure, it is important that the persistent hazard of landslides within the earthquake affected region be understood and recognized [Bulmer, 2006].The combination of field observations and movement data analysis undertaken in this project supports the hypothesis that the risk of damage from landslides in Pakistani Kashmir has increased significantly since the Kashmir earthquake. Site visits shortly after the earthquake revealed an enormous extent of slope damage, and data collection devices were installed in the Neelum and Jhelum valleys prior to the start of the 2006 monsoon and continue to collect data.The earthquake has created a unique opportunity to advance the understanding of the response of rocky slopes to seismic disturbance [Keefer, 1984] and subsequent rainfall. This paper presents a brief description of a new motion detection technology being used in Kashmir that has distinct advantages in terms of cost effectiveness when compared with other approaches.
The Kashmir EarthquakeThe Kashmir earthquake was caused by the rupture of the northwest-southeast oriented Muzaffarabad Thrust Fault. Its hypocenter was located at a depth of 20 kilometers about 19 kilometers northea...