Characteristics of an Advective Marine Heatwave in the Middle Atlantic Bight in Early 2017

Gawarkiewicz, Glen; Chen, Ke; Forsyth, Jacob; Bahr, Frank; Mercer, Anna Malek; Ellertson, Aubrey; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Seim, Harvey; Haines, Sara; Han, Lu

doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00712

Cited by 55 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Studies such as Myers and Drinkwater (1989) can be revisited to understand the impact of the larger number of WCRs (after the regime shift in 2000) on the various groundfish populations in the GOM and GB area. In fact, such a high number of WCRs in the slope water might have impacted the ecosystem of the GOM/GB and MAB by making them even warmer and saltier frequently in the first two decades of the 21st century as reported recently by Gawarkiewicz et al (2019). An investigation for identifying similar regime shift in the recruitment structure of ichthyoplankton and zooplankton is underway.…”

Section: 1029/2019jc016033mentioning

confidence: 90%

A Census of the Warm‐Core Rings of the Gulf Stream: 1980–2017

et al. 2020

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A census of Gulf Stream (GS) warm‐core rings (WCRs) is presented based on 38 years (1980–2017) of data. The census documents formation and demise times and locations, and formation size for all 961 WCRs formed in the study period that live for a week or more. A clear regime shift was observed around the Year 2000 and was reported by a subset of authors (Gangopadhyay et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48661-9). The WCR formation over the whole region (75–55°W) increased from an average of 18 per year during Regime 1 (1980–1999) to 33 per year during Regime 2 (2000–2017). For geographic analysis formation locations were grouped in four 5° zones between 75°W and 55°W. Seasonally, WCR formations show a significant summer maxima and winter minima, a pattern that is consistent through all zones and both temporal regimes. The lifespan and size distribution show progressively more rings with higher longevity and greater size when formed to the east of 70°W. The average lifespan of the WCRs in all four zones decreased by 20–40% depending on zones and/or seasons from Regime 1 to Regime 2, while the size distribution remained unchanged across regimes. The ring footprint index, a first‐order signature of impact of the WCRs on the slope, increased significantly (26–90%) for all zones from Regime 1 to Regime 2, with the highest percent increase in Zone 2 (70–65°W). This observational study establishes critical statistical and dynamical benchmarks for validating numerical models and highlights the need for further dynamical understanding of the GS‐ring formation processes.

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Section: 1029/2019jc016033mentioning

confidence: 90%

A Census of the Warm‐Core Rings of the Gulf Stream: 1980–2017

et al. 2020

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“…Large amplitude meanders and WCRs can bring warm salty water into close proximity to the continental slope and shelf break 11 , 12 and can affect both the Shelfbreak Jet as well as shelf temperature 13 . Gawarkiewicz et al 14 found that an ocean-driven MHW along the continental shelf of the Mid-Atlantic Bight in 2017 was forced by the presence of a WCR, which resulted in cross-shelf transport of warm and salty Gulf Stream water. Additionally, a northward shift of the Gulf Stream toward the Tail of Grand Banks, where it potentially blocks the equatorward-flowing Labrador Current has been shown to increase salinity and temperature of subsurface waters on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, “downstream” (southwest) of this interaction location 15 , 16 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding physical drivers of the 2015/16 marine heatwaves in the Northwest Atlantic

Pérez

Ryan

Andres

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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The Northwest Atlantic, which has exhibited evidence of accelerated warming compared to the global ocean, also experienced several notable marine heatwaves (MHWs) over the last decade. We analyze spatiotemporal patterns of surface and subsurface temperature structure across the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope to assess the influences of atmospheric and oceanic processes on ocean temperatures. Here we focus on MHWs from 2015/16 and examine their physical drivers using observational and reanalysis products. We find that a combination of jet stream latitudinal position and ocean advection, mainly due to warm core rings shed by the Gulf Stream, plays a role in MHW development. While both atmospheric and oceanic drivers can lead to MHWs they have different temperature signatures with each affecting the vertical structure differently and horizontal spatial patterns of a MHW. Northwest Atlantic MHWs have significant socio-economic impacts and affect commercially important species such as squid and lobster.

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“…This path variability has been linked to multiple processes spanning from fisheries (Nye et al., 2011) to atmospheric events (Joyce et al., 2009) and is often interpreted as an indicator of climate change (Caesar et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2019). In particular recent rapid changes in the northwest Atlantic water properties and ecosystem, responses have been linked to the variations of the GS path and its instabilities (Andres, 2016; Brickman et al., 2018; Gangopadhyay et al., 2019; Gawarkiewicz et al., 2012, 2018, 2019; Mills et al., 2013; Pershing et al., 2015; Silver et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Gulf Stream Path Using Buoyancy and Wind Forcing Over the North Atlantic

et al. 2021

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Fluctuations in the path of the Gulf Stream (GS) have been previously studied by primarily connecting to either the wind‐driven subtropical gyre circulation or buoyancy forcing via the subpolar gyre. Here we present a statistical model for 1 year predictions of the GS path (represented by the GS northern wall—GSNW) between normal75°W and normal65°W incorporating both mechanisms in a combined framework. An existing model with multiple parameters including the previous year's GSNW index, center location, and amplitude of the Icelandic Low and the Southern Oscillation Index was augmented with basin‐wide Ekman drift over the Azores High. The addition of the wind is supported by a validation of the simpler two‐layer Parsons‐Veronis model of GS separation over the last 40 years. A multivariate analysis was carried out to compare 1‐year‐in‐advance forecast correlations from four different models. The optimal predictors of the best performing model include: (a) the GSNW index from the previous year, (b) gyre‐scale integrated Ekman Drift over the past 2 years, and (c) longitude of the Icelandic Low center lagged by 3 years. The forecast correlation over the 27 years (1994–2020) is 0.65, an improvement from the previous multi‐parameter model's forecast correlation of 0.52. The improvement is attributed to the addition of the wind‐drift component. The sensitivity of forecasting the GS path after extreme atmospheric years is quantified. Results indicate the possibility of better understanding and enhanced predictability of the dominant wind‐driven variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and of fisheries management models that use the GS path as a metric.

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Characteristics of an Advective Marine Heatwave in the Middle Atlantic Bight in Early 2017

Cited by 55 publications

References 27 publications

A Census of the Warm‐Core Rings of the Gulf Stream: 1980–2017

A Census of the Warm‐Core Rings of the Gulf Stream: 1980–2017

Understanding physical drivers of the 2015/16 marine heatwaves in the Northwest Atlantic

Forecasting the Gulf Stream Path Using Buoyancy and Wind Forcing Over the North Atlantic

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