Characteristics and Projection of Rainfall Erosivity Distribution in the Hengduan Mountains

Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains, known for their rugged terrain and high potential for soil erosion risks, over the past 30 years. Additionally, it investigates the changing trends of rainfall erosivity between 2025 and 2040 under the Sustainable Development Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5), using four Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicate: (1) The annual distribution of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains exhibited significant seasonal variations, ranking in the order of summer > autumn > spring > winter on a seasonal scale. (2) Over the past 30 years, there has been a slight decrease in annual precipitation and a corresponding slight increase in rainfall erosivity. Periodic extreme values occur every 6–8 years. (3) Spatially, rainfall erosivity demonstrates a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest. There is a significant positive correlation between rainfall erosivity and precipitation, while a significant negative correlation exists with elevation in the vertical direction. Furthermore, the northeastern part of the Hengduan Mountains exhibits an increasing trend of rainfall erosivity, while the southern region experiences a decreasing trend. (4) Considering the joint driving forces of increased precipitation and erosive rainfall events, rainfall erosivity is expected to significantly increase in the future, posing a more severe risk of soil erosion in this region.