Characteristics and Importance of “ICME-in-sheath” Phenomenon and Upper Limit for Geomagnetic Storm Activity

Liu, Ying D.; Chen, Chong; Zhao, Xiaowei

doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ab9d25

Cited by 15 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…For the geomagnetic storm in August 1972August , [D'uston et al, 1977 measured values of the interplanetary magnetic field between 50 and more than 100 nT. [Liu et al, 2020] suggest an upper boundary ∼100 nT. This range of values is compatible with our estimation of ∼90 nT and ∼100 nT for one-in-40 and one-in-80 years.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Estimation of the Solar Wind Extreme Events

2021

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Scientific progression in the last decades has made modern society more dependent on technology. Due to the interdependence between different components of technological infrastructure, a severe space weather event could cause a cascading effect in different aspects of modern life, from disruption in electric power grids to spacecraft malfunction and navigation problems. For example, one of the largest magnetic storms of the last century, occurring in March 1989, caused widespread effects in the Hydro-Québec power system in Canada (see e.g., Boteler, 2019). Riley et al. (2018) state that the cost of a worst-case scenario 1-in-100 years magnetic storm would include: (a) 1-2 Trillion USD dollars of economic loss; and (b) 130 million people without electrical power for several years, based on the destruction of several hundred transformers.The main driver of geomagnetic storms is the solar wind; hence, knowledge of the most severe disturbances in the solar wind is essential to both forecast and to potentially mitigate risks related to space weather events. Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical method developed to analyze the likelihood of occurrence of rare and severe events (see Coles, 2001; Gumbel, 1958 and references therein). This theory has been applied in different fields, from hydrology and meteorology (see e.g., Gumbel, 1958) to finance (Embrechts & Schmidli, 1994) and public health (Thomas et al., 2016). In recent decades, EVT has been applied to estimate extreme values in different aspects of solar physics and space weather. In particular, extreme value analysis has been applied to the study of extreme geomagnetic storms (

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Estimation of the Solar Wind Extreme Events

2021

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“…Y. D. Liu et al. (2020) empirically estimated the upper limit of the magnetopause standoff distance to be approximately 3.3 R E under the effect of a solar superstorm. In addition, Figure 3 shows the distribution of the field‐aligned currents (FACs) in the Northern Hemisphere during the same period as Figure 2, where red represents upward‐flowing current and blue representing downward‐flowing current.…”

Section: Simulation Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Y. D. Liu et al (2014) showed that the superstorm was formed by the in-transit interaction between two successive CMEs; they defined this CME as an "ICME-in-sheath" event, the preceding ejecta of which are further squeezed both by the host ejecta and by shockwave-induced compression. According to their analysis, the magnitudes of the magnetic field, speed, and plasma density of this ICME are the highest on record at 1 au (Y. D. Liu et al, 2020). Considering the consequences of a solar superstorm this powerful striking the Earth, Baker et al (2013) estimated that the "worst-case scenario" would have involved an extreme geomagnetic storm, potentially significantly larger than the famous Carrington event of 1859.…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulation of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in a Low‐Latitude 500 kV Power Network During a Solar Superstorm

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2022

Space Weather

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Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed toward the Earth produce the most severe geomagnetic storms in the Earth's atmosphere. The highly variable magnetosphere-ionosphere current system produced by a CME can induce geoelectric fields in the ground, resulting in the generation of low-frequency geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in conductor based technological infrastructure systems in the ground, such as power grids, oil and gas pipelines, and high-speed railway systems. The flow of large GICs through transformer windings can saturate the core and cause the transformer to malfunction (with the possibility of permanent damage) and can even cause the whole system to collapse (Pirjola, 2002). The corresponding increase in soil pile potentials can destroy the cathodic protection, accelerating the corrosion rate of pipelines (Boteler, 2000). Moreover, GICs flowing through the track circuits of railways may cause anomalies in signaling and control systems .

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“…Based on the literature, the interaction between multiple CMEs would enhance the magnetic field in the ICMEs [9,15,[17][18][19]. In addition, as a special type of multiple ICMEs interaction, the interaction between previous ICMEs and following shocks could also enhance the B s in the ICMEs significantly [9,[20][21][22][23][24]. Shen et al [18] found that in the shock-ICME interaction event of 6-11 September 2017, the shock compression enhanced B s inside the ICME from 10 to 30 nT.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Origin of Extremely Intense Southward Component of Magnetic Field (Bs) in ICMEs

Shen

Chi

et al. 2021

Front. Phys.

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The intensity of the southward component of the magnetic field (Bs) carried by Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) is one of the most critical parameters in causing extreme space weather events, such as intense geomagnetic storms. In this work, we investigate three typical ICME events with extremely intense Bs in detail and present a statistical analysis of the origins of intense Bs in different types of ICMEs based on the ICME catalogue from 1995 to 2020. According to the in-situ characteristics, the ICME events with extremely high Bs are classified into three types: isolated ICMEs, multiple ICMEs, and shock-ICME interaction events with shocks inside ICMEs or shocks passing through ICMEs. By analyzing all ICME events with Bs ≥ 10nT and Bs ≥ 20nT, we find that 39.6% of Bs,mean ≥ 10nT events and 50% of Bs,mean ≥ 20nT events are associated with shock-ICME events. Approximately 35.7% of shock-ICME events have Bs,mean ≥ 10nT, which is much higher than the other two types (isoloted ICMEs: 7.2% and multiple ICMEs: 12.1%). Those results confirm that the ICMEs interaction events are more likely to carry extreme intense Bs and cause intense geomagntic storms. Only based on the in-situ observations at Earth, some interaction ICME events, such as shock-ICME interaction events with shocks passing through the preceding ICME or ICME cannibalism, could be classified as isolated ICME events. This may lead to an overestimate of the probability of ICME carrying extremely intense Bs. To further investigate such events, direct and multi-point observations of the CME propagation in the inner heliosphere from the Solar Ring Mission could be crucial in the future.

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Characteristics and Importance of “ICME-in-sheath” Phenomenon and Upper Limit for Geomagnetic Storm Activity

Cited by 15 publications

References 47 publications

Estimation of the Solar Wind Extreme Events

Estimation of the Solar Wind Extreme Events

Simulation of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in a Low‐Latitude 500 kV Power Network During a Solar Superstorm

Origin of Extremely Intense Southward Component of Magnetic Field (Bs) in ICMEs

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