Characteristics and Attribution of Spatiotemporal Changes in Qilian Mountains' Runoff Over the Past Six Decades

Abstract

Tibet's Qilian Mountains (QM) include critical water conservation areas and important ecological barriers, which help maintain downstream inland river oasis stability. For decades, contemporaneous climatic and cryospheric variation has severely impacted QM's hydrological processes, challenging local water resource management and sustainable development. However, due to prevalent data and methodological limitations, QM research has primarily focused on runoff change at a basin scale. Spatial distributions and temporal changes in runoff subsequently remain unclear. Based on multi‐source data and the literature, we estimated that QM's mountain outlets generate approximately 15.671 km3 in total annual runoff, exhibiting a spatially decreasing pattern from northeast to southwest. Moreover, runoff distribution and trend variation at seasonal and annual scales depend upon the river replenishment source type. Beginning in the 1950s and 1960s, eastern rain‐fed rivers experienced a downward trend while those dominated by meltwater or simultaneously fed by multiple sources in its central and western regions experienced an upward trend. As an integrated product of mixed multi‐factor effects, runoff is regulated by temperature, precipitation, and cryospheric meltwater. Moreover, the main controlling runoff factors varied seasonally under different water source concentrations. Annually, precipitation was the main driver for runoff change in the eastern region while, correspondingly, temperature was in the western region where glaciers and the snow line boundary predominant. Besides, this study highlighted that the existing literature has significant limitations in understanding interactions among different cryospheric components and hydrologic process mechanisms when exploring the reasons for runoff variations, which needs further exploration in the future.