Characterisation of contemporary local climate change in the mountains of southwest Bulgaria

Grunewald, Karsten; Scheithauer, Jörg; Monget, Jean‐Marie; Brown, Douglas A.

doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9508-8

Cited by 35 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Discharge, winter precipitation and, specifically, snowfall have decreased significantly since the 1960s throughout the southwest Balkan mountains (e.g. Grunewald et al 2009, López-Moreno et al 2011, in line with the findings from the Prespa catchment. The declining wet-season (Oct.-Apr.)…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

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Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Schriek

Giannakopoulos

2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are threatened by climate change and intensive human impacts. Individual lake responses to these threats are poorly known but urgently required to steer preservation strategies. The dramatic water-level fall (~8 m since 1987) of Lake Megali Prespa endangers this global biodiversity hotspot and the wider catchment's water resources. Annual lake fluctuations are found to be strongly related to wet-season (Oct.-Apr.) precipitation variability, which is linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The lake primarily adjusts to sustained inflow changes through amending surface evaporation. Cumulative water abstraction since 1951 (~19 × 10 6 m 3 /year:~0.006% of lake volume) explains~70% of the long-term decrease in surface evaporation; climate variability explains the remainder. Persistent low lake levels after 1995 are caused by water abstraction. Compared to 1952Compared to /53-1977, the period 1978/79-2003/04 experienced significant decreases in wet-season precipitation, snowfall and discharge; the number of very dry years increased. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…This finding is corroborated by studies in other southern Balkan mountain chains (e.g. Petkova et al 2004, Grunewald et al 2009). …”

Section: Catchment Climate Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 83%

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Schriek

Giannakopoulos

2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…At both stations monthly temperature data were gained for the period from 1936 to 2005 and precipitation data for 1934 and 1955 to 2005, accordingly. For the period from 1973 to 2006 partially even daily data was available (4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bosnian Pine (Pinus Heldreichii) as Geoarchive at the Timberline in the Pirin Mountains and on the Balkan Peninsula

Scheithauer

Grunewald

Helle

et al. 2009

Biotechnology & Biotechnological Equipment

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High mountains and their ecosystems offer an outstanding opportunity for studies on the impact of climate change. The Pirin Mountains in Southeast Europe, situated at the transition between temperate and Mediterranean climate, are considered as very sensitive to historical and current global changes. Site specific effects as well as the impact of historical disturbances have been analysed at treeline ecotone testplots. Bosnian Pine (Pinus heldreichii) and Macedonian Pine (Pinus peuce) are the most common species at the recent timberline around 2.100 m a.s.l. in the Pirin Mountains. The results on dendroclimatology provide an insight into the potential of the Bosnian Pine and its chronologies in the Northern Pirin Mountains. First conclusions can be drawn from the chronology and site comparison respectively as well as the climate-growth-analysis. On the one hand, the width growth is humidity limited. On the other hand, the tree-rings similarly reflect high summer temperatures as a negative impact factor at sunny south flanks. At the same time, mild winters have a positive effect.

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“…For several years the subject of climate change and its infl uence in the area of southwest Bulgaria [ 1 ] and the Mesta in particular [ 3 ] have been investigated on the various aspects of mountain forest ecology and water resources. Our study of climate change impacts on the water regime of the Mesta/Nestos river basin was conducted with the use of the IPCC/A1B scenario [ 5 ] for the period between January 2016 and December 2065.…”

Section: Results Of Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on River Catchment Hydrology Using Dynamic Downscaling of Global Climate Models

Skoulikaris

Ganoulis

2011

National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change

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Impacts from climate change may affect vital factors of environmental and human security related to water uses, such as domestic water supply, hydropower and industrial production, agricultural irrigation and ecosystems needs. This is particularly important in regions with arid and semi-arid climates like the Mediterranean and the South Eastern Europe. In this presentation the coupling of different climate change models with a distributed hydrological model was developed in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources at the river basin level. Firstly, the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHAM5/ MPIOM, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, was used to provide boundary conditions of the regional climate model CLM. Simulation results at 6 hourly intervals were provided for Europe, using a spatial grid resolution of 20 × 20 km. Secondly, the spatially distributed hydrological model MODSUR-NEIGE (MODélisation des transferts de SURface en présence de NEIGE, in French), developed by the School of Mines, Paris, France, was used for dynamically downscaling boundary conditions provided by CLM over a spatially variable grid ranging between 250 m and 2 km in size. In this way temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration distributions were adapted to local conditions, such as the river watershed relief, local geology and land uses. The methodology is illustrated for the Mesta/Nestos river basin, which is shared between Bulgaria and Greece and is part of the worldwide UNESCO-HELP initiative. The upstream northern part of the basin (Mesta) is in Bulgaria, and the downstream part (Nestos)

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Characterisation of contemporary local climate change in the mountains of southwest Bulgaria

Cited by 35 publications

References 9 publications

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Determining the causes for the dramatic recent fall of Lake Prespa (southwest Balkans)

Bosnian Pine (Pinus Heldreichii) as Geoarchive at the Timberline in the Pirin Mountains and on the Balkan Peninsula

Climate Change Impacts on River Catchment Hydrology Using Dynamic Downscaling of Global Climate Models

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