SummaryThe results of the Swedish two-county study are analysed with respect to tumour size, nodal status and malignancy grade, and the relationship of these prognostic factors to screening and to survival. It is shown that these factors can account for much of the differences in survival between incidence screen detected, interval and control group cancers but to a lesser extent for cancers detected at the prevalence screen where length bias is greatest. Furthermore, examination of the relationships among the prognostic factors and mode of detection indicates that malignancy grade, as a measure of inherent malignant capacity, evolves as a tumour grows. The proportion of cancers with poor malignancy grade is several fold lower for cancers of diameter less than 15 cm than for cancers greater than 30 cm, independent of the length bias of screening. The implications of these findings for screening frequency are briefly discussed.It has been shown that mortality from breast cancer can be reduced by mass screening using mammography (Shapiro et al., 1982;Tabar et al., 1985), a reduction resulting from earlier diagnosis. The natural history of breast cancer, however, is clearly heterogeneous, with substantial variation among tumours in their malignant potential, rate of growth and prognosis. Further, little is known of the rate at which prognosis deteriorates as a tumour develops or conversely how prognosis improves as the time of diagnosis is advanced.It is known that screening does reduce rates of larger tumours and of metastases Tabar et al., 1987). Moreover, these factors affect survival, as does malignancy grades. However, these relationships have not been fully quantified in a screening context, so the mechanism whereby screening can reduce mortality is not fully understood. The purpose of the present paper is to examine, using the results of the Swedish two-county study:(1) the relationships among the prognostic factors: tumour size, nodal involvement and malignancy grade; (2) the change in these factors brought about by screening; (3) the extent to which the change in the distributions of prognostic factors achieved by screening can account for the mortality reduction; (4) (Bloom & Richardson, 1957;Scarff & Torloni, 1968) was determined by one pathologist in each county, but as results demonstrate, there were differences between the two counties in proportions of grades 1, 2 and 3, probably reflecting subjectivity in classification of tumour grade rather than a difference in the two tumour populations. No such differences were observed between counties for tumour size or node status.Statistical analysis of associations among tumour characteristics was performed using log-linear modelling and logistic regression (Aitkin et al., 1989). These methods yield likelihood ratio (deviance) chi-squared tests for significance of associations and odds ratio estimates of relative risks (for example of being nodes positive for given grade relative to grade 1). Survival analysis was performed using proportional hazards regres...