Chapter 25 : Southwest. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

Garfin, Gregg M.; González, Patrick; Breshears, David D.; Brooks, Keely; Brown, Heidi E.; Elias, Emile; Gunasekara, Amrith S.; Huntly, Nancy J.; Maldonado, Julie; Mantua, Nathan J.; Margolis, Helene G.; McAfee, Skyli; Middleton, Beth Rose; Udall, B.

doi:10.7930/nca4.2018.ch25

Cited by 34 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 409 publications

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“…First, we hypothesize that the change of steep lapse rates in mid-levels of the troposphere is tied to changes in the seasonal evolution of the elevated mixed layer, which forms over source regions in Mexico and the western U.S., and is subsequently advected eastward. 42 Stronger surface heating at higher elevations, tied to aridification and earlier snowmelt, 43 could result in elevated mixed layers appearing earlier in the season and more frequently, increasing the probability of large hail events as severe thunderstorms form in these elevated-mixed-layer environments. 44 Second, we hypothesize that there are more favorable background or synoptic-scale patterns for increased instability and vertical wind shear in the Northeast, the reasons for which warrant further investigation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

2019

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Understanding trends in large hail-producing environments is an important component of estimating hail risk. Here, we use two environmental parameters, the Large Hail Parameter and the Significant Hail Parameter, to assess trends in days with environments conducive for hail ≥5 cm. From 1979 to 2017, there has been an increase in days with favorable large hail environments in central and eastern portions of the U.S. This increase has been driven primarily by an increasing frequency of days with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates and necessary combinations of instability and vertical wind shear for severe thunderstorms. Annual large hail environment area is significantly, positively correlated with (1) large hail report area east of the Rocky Mountains, and (2) large hail radar-derived area in the Midwest and Northeast. This evidence suggests that there may be an environmental fingerprint on increasing large hail risk and expanding this risk eastward.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

2019

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“…In the Western USA, changes in climate have introduced a suite of impacts that are projected to increase in frequency and severity in the future, including drought, forest fire, and flooding (Gordon & Ojima 2015;Gonzalez et al 2018;Reidmiller et al 2018). These impacts pose a challenge to public land management agencies, who manage an average of 48.3% of the land in each of the 12 western states (Vincent et al 2017), and the people whose livelihoods are dependent upon federal lands (Gordon & Ojima 2015;Kemp et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many resources that the BLM manage are sensitive to the potential impacts of climate change such as drought, severe fire, changes in precipitation, and extreme weather events (Executive Order (EO), 2013; Gonzalez et al 2018). To continue to support multiple uses, the agency will need to adapt their management strategies (e.g., season or duration of grazing use) to respond to the emerging effects of climate change across the landscape (Department of Interior (DOI), 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for change? Assessing the integration of climate change and land-based livelihoods in Colorado BLM planning documents

2020

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Many western communities are surrounded by public lands that support land-based and local economies. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) decision-making affects the vulnerability of those land-based livelihoods, especially in the context of climate change. We analyzed Colorado BLM planning documents to evaluate how they are considering climate change, sensitive resources, impacts, and land-based livelihoods in their planning processes using both quantitative word counts and qualitative coding. Documents published in recent years (2011-2015) include more mentions of climate change than older documents (1985-1997). However, the review showed that while climate change is discussed within the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) planning documents, the final Resource Management Plans contain few mentions of climate change. Further, there is minimal consideration of how climate change may impact land-based livelihoods. These results prompt questions about the planning process, how climate change considerations are integrated into the final documents, and how that impacts on-theground management. The review suggests a need for increased consideration of climate change throughout the BLM's planning process so that landscapes can be managed with more attention and awareness to climate change and the associated impacts to resources and dependent communities. Keywords Land-based livelihoods. Climate change. BLM. Gray literature. Planning. NEPA 1 Animal unit month (AUM) is defined as the forage needed for one "animal unit" for 1 month. An "animal unit" is considered a 1000-lb cow and her suckling calf. AUM is the unit used to calculate federal grazing fees by the BLM.

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“…Thus, today's arid zones are laboratories for the future. Here, climate change already poses an imminent threat to water availability, food security, ecosystem services, economic security, and human health (Gonzalez et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%