Chapter 18 : Northeast. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

Dupigny‐Giroux, Lesley‐Ann; Mecray, E. L.; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary D.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lentz, Erika E.; Mills, Katherine E.; Lane, Erin; Miller, Rawlings; Hollinger, David Y.; Solecki, William; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Sheffield, Perry; MacDonald, Anthony B.; Caldwell, Christopher

doi:10.7930/nca4.2018.ch18

Cited by 52 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 325 publications

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“…Our results also agree with studies that report temperature excursions, more frequent and longer mid-winter thaws, and loss of continuous cold and snow in the core (coldest part or DJF) of the winter season across northeastern North America (Liu et al 2006, Williams et al 2015. This pattern of extreme high temperatures, longer and more frequent midwinter thaws and snow-free periods, and changes in cold spell duration and intensity is expected to continue and amplify with climate change, with consequences for both ecosystems and society (Williams et al 2015, Dupigny-Giroux, et al 2018.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America

Contosta

Casson

Nelson

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Winter is often understudied in ecosystem sciences and viewed as a burden for human systems and infrastructure. However, the importance of winter in regulating ecological processes and shaping human communities has emerged as a topic of great interest, particularly in areas that experience seasonal snow cover. Traditional seasonal definitions may not fully represent below freezing winters and snow accumulation that have historically characterized these areas. Here we: (1) propose the concept of 'frigid winter' to address longstanding problems with traditional delineations of winter; and (2) define frigid winter as a period of sustained temperatures below freezing and snow accumulation that together regulate ecological processes and their services. We explore this definition and the changes occurring within it using 100 years of meteorological data from northeastern North America. Trend analysis demonstrates that frigid winters have shortened by ∼3 weeks over the last century, that cold, snowy conditions have become more intermittent, and that the choice of winter delineation (astronomical, meteorological, hibernal, or frigid) influences the apparent rate at which winter conditions disappear.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America

Contosta

Casson

Nelson

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NELME) provides an ideal testing ground for asking these questions. From 1982 through 2018, the region's surface waters warmed faster than the vast majority of the world's oceans [42][43][44], and it is projected to warm rapidly in the future [45,46]. Researchers have also documented temperature-driven movements of marine species to higher latitudes and to deeper depths [47,48], and projections indicate distribution changes will continue [40,49].…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change

et al. 2020

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Species distribution shifts are a widely reported biological consequence of climate-driven warming across marine ecosystems, creating ecological and social challenges. To meet these challenges and inform management decisions, we need accurate projections of species distributions. Quantitative species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used to make these projections, while qualitative climate change vulnerability assessments are becoming more common. We constructed SDMs, compared SDM projections to expectations from a qualitative expert climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed a novel approach for combining the two methods to project the distribution and relative biomass of 49 marine species in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem under a "business as usual" climate change scenario. A forecasting experiment using SDMs highlighted their ability to capture relative biomass patterns fairly well (mean Pearson's correlation coefficient between predicted and observed biomass = 0.24, range = 0-0.6) and pointed to areas needing improvement, including reducing prediction error and better capturing finescale spatial variability. SDM projections suggest the region will undergo considerable biological changes, especially in the Gulf of Maine, where commercially-important groundfish and traditional forage species are expected to decline as coastal fish species and warmerwater forage species historically found in the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Bight area increase. The SDM projections only occasionally aligned with vulnerability assessment expectations, with agreement more common for species with adult mobility and population growth rates that showed low sensitivity to climate change. Although our blended approach tried to build from the strengths of each method, it had no noticeable improvement in predictive ability over SDMs. This work rigorously evaluates the predictive ability of SDMs, quantifies expected species distribution shifts under future climate conditions, and tests a new

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“…Agriculture in the Northeast relies on surface and groundwater for a variety of purposes, with irrigation representing a significant portion of the industry's water use (Dieter et al 2018;Hellerstein et al 2019). Despite a projected increase in average yearly rainfall in coming decades (Dupigny-Giroux et al 2018), access to irrigation water for crop production purposes remains critical to the success of agriculture in the region. In most Northeast states (with the exception of West Virginia), both the total number of irrigated agricultural acres and the proportion of total agricultural acres upon which irrigation is applied have grown (Figs.…”

Section: Agricultural Water Use In the Northeastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water use governance in a temperate region: Implications for agricultural climate change adaptation in the Northeastern United States

Schattman

Niles

Aitken³

2020

Ambio

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Climate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise the U.S. Northeast. Specifically, we examine their heterogeneous approaches to surface and groundwater use, permitting and reporting, and scarcity provisions. Using agriculture as the sector of focus, we show through narrative review and quantitative analysis that change in the proportion of cropland that is irrigated in each state does not differ based on governance approach. We also suggest that future decades may bring regulatory shifts relevant to agriculture, changes in enforcement, increased competition between agriculture and other users, and greater potential competition between states for water resources. This case study raises the question: how should we prepare for the time when competition for, or degradation of, a resource surpasses the ability of existing governance mechanisms to ensure conservation and equitable distribution?

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Chapter 18 : Northeast. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

Cited by 52 publications

References 325 publications

Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America

Defining frigid winter illuminates its loss across seasonally snow-covered areas of eastern North America

Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change

Water use governance in a temperate region: Implications for agricultural climate change adaptation in the Northeastern United States

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