Chapter 1 Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: A review

Luterbacher, Jürg; Xoplaki, Elena; Casty, Carlo; Wanner, Heinz; Pauling, Andreas; Küttel, Marcel; Rutishauser, This; Brönnimann, Stefan; Fischer, Erich M.; Fleitmann, Dominik; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; García‐Herrera, Ricardo; Barriendos, Mariano; Rodrigo, F. S.; González‐Hidalgo, José Carlos; Saz, Miguel Ángel; Gimeno, Luis; Ribera, Pedro; Brunet, M.; Paeth, Heiko; Rîmbu, Norel; Felis, Thomas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Dünkeloh, Armin; Zorita, Eduardo; Guiot, Joël; Türkeş, Murat; Alcoforado, María João; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Wheeler, Dennis; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mann, Michael; Touchan, Ramzi; Shindell, D. T.; Silenzi, Sergio; Montagna, Paolo; Camuffo, Dario; Mariotti, Annarita; Nanni, T.; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Zerefos, C. S.; Zolt, S. de; Lionello, Piero; Nunes, María de Fátima; Rath, Volker; Beltrami, Hugo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ladurie, Emmanuel Ley Roy

doi:10.1016/s1571-9197(06)80004-2

Cited by 159 publications

(152 citation statements)

References 268 publications

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“…A similar analysis has been performed for the Mediterranean area over the last 500 years (Luterbacher et al, 2006) and European spring and autumn temperature . In a first step, we present recent precipitation anomalies and compare them with historical analogues.…”

Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…We define climate extremes as k-year return values (RVs) of seasonal sums of precipitation as estimated from Gamma distributions fitted to the data (Paeth and Hense, 2005;Xoplaki et al, 2005;Luterbacher et al, 2006). The return period (RP) k associated with a given RV is defined as the inverse of the probability that the RV is reached or exceeded assuming Gamma distribution.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…So far, very few studies deal with changes in European seasonal precipitation extremes (e.g. Luterbacher et al, 2006). For the understanding of the climate system, it is crucial to investigate seasonal extremes rather than annual extremes as each season has its specific dynamics and also the impacts on the society are season-specific.…”

Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a first step, we present recent precipitation anomalies and compare them with historical analogues. Further, return values of extremely wet and dry winters are estimated and the significance of their changes over the last 300 years is assessed (Paeth and Hense, 2005;Xoplaki et al, 2005;Luterbacher et al, 2006). As climate change may differ regionally, we perform the analyses on a gridpoint basis (0.5 • ×0.5 • resolution, see below) with special regard to anomalies during the recent decades (which were presumably influenced by anthropogenic forcing) and seasonal extremes during earlier periods.…”

Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

Pauling

Paeth²

2007

Clim. Past

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Abstract.We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951-2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951-2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

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Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Even Nowadays Agriculturalmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

Pauling

Paeth²

2007

Clim. Past

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“…The Mediterranean region has experienced large climate shifts in the past (Luterbacher et al, 2006) and has been identified as a hotspot in future climate change projections (Giorgi, 2006). The Iberian Peninsula is among the areas where projections of climate change impacts are more significant, particularly during summer when the ensemble average change (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990, A1B scenario) can be as higher as 5°C in surface air temperature and − 40% in annual precipitation (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008).…”

Section: Future Climate Change and Land-use Scenarios Impacts On Margmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Santos

Fernandes

Varandas

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

105

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• Develop a verification scheme to check stress on M. margaritifera based on thresholds • Assess the impact of future climate change in conservation status of M. margaritifera • Assess the impact of land-use in habitat requirements of M. margaritifera • Propose conservation measures to prevent extinction of M. margaritifera in Portugal a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, humanrelated threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.

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Impact of borehole depths on reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy storage

2015

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Estimates of ground surface temperature changes and continental energy storage from geothermal data have become well‐accepted indicators of climatic changes. These estimates are independent contributions to the ensemble of paleoclimatic reconstructions and have been used for the validation of general circulation models, and as a component of the energy budget accounting of the global climate system. Recent global and hemispheric analyses of geothermal data were based on data available in the borehole paleoclimatology database, which contains subsurface temperature profiles from a minimum depth of 200 m to about 600 m. Because of the nature of heat conduction, different depth ranges contain the record of past and persistent changes in the energy balance between the lower atmosphere and the ground for different time periods. Here we examine the dependency of estimated ground surface temperature histories and the magnitude of the subsurface heat content on the depth of borehole temperature profiles. Our results show that uncertainties in the estimates of the long‐term surface temperature are in the range of ±0.5K. We conclude that previous estimates of ground surface temperature change remain valid for the period since industrialization, but longer‐term estimates are subject to considerable uncertainties. The subsurface heat content shows a larger range of variability arising from differences in depth of the borehole temperature profiles, as well as from differences in the time of data acquisition, spanning four decades. These results indicate that estimates of subsurface heat should be carried out with caution to decrease cumulative errors in any spatial analysis.

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Chapter 1 Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: A review

Cited by 159 publications

References 268 publications

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Impact of borehole depths on reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy storage

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