Chaotic neural network model for SMISs reliability prediction based on interdependent network SMISs reliability prediction by chaotic neural network

Abstract

With the development of industrial Internet, smart manufacturing information systems (SMISs) are faced with more uncertainties, dynamics, and complexity. These problems bring more challenges to the reliability operation of SMISs. To solve the above problem, a prediction model based on phase space reconstruction, chaos analysis, and back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed to predict SMISs reliability. First, we decompose failure data series into some subdata series components with strong regularity by using C‐C algorithm and Cao algorithm. On this basis, we use the maximum Lyapunov index to identify chaotic characteristics of failure data series. And then, we establish BP neural network prediction model by using reconstructing failure data to predict SMISs failure behaviors. Finally, we use two groups of failure data series to verify the effectiveness of chaotic BP neural network model, and the experiment results verify that chaotic BP neural network model has more accurate prediction results compared with BP network, support vector machine, long short term memory networks (LSTM), and autoregressive model (AR). LEAD PARAGRAPH SMISs are open and complex systems, human error and external environment cause the uncertainty of reliability. The threat of the external environment mainly comes from malicious attacks and the threat of the human error mainly comes from the wrong operation of the operator. Human error and external environment often cause frequent failures of software and hardware of the system or physical failures of devices. As an open complex system, the reliability operation of SMISs is very important for manufacturing enterprises. However, in the daily use of SMISs, the most common failures are time failure caused by human error and external environment. Therefore, it is very important to study the time failure of SMISs. Main points of this paper: (1) SMISs are complex and open systems, so we establish an interdependent network based on the characteristics of SMISs, and use the cascade effect of the complex network to point out that when SMISs fail, the system will easily fall into failure. (2) The phase space reconstruction method is used to restore the real data characteristics of failure data. (3) By using the reconstructed data and the neural network, the failure behavior can be predicted accurately. Compared with other popular prediction methods, it is found that general machine learning methods cannot predict data with chaotic characteristics. The research results of this paper find that when SMISs fail, the failure behavior can easily lead SMISs into chaos through the propagation of interdependent network. Therefore, when future scholars conduct fault analysis on SMISs, they should consider the chaos of the data, otherwise the systems fault analysis and diagnosis cannot be carried out accurately.

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“…In research on chaos, the Lyapunov exponent is usually used to measure the average exponential rate of convergence or divergence in a phase trajectory over time [26,27]. When the maximum Lyapunov exponent is less than 0, it shows that the system is stable and the trajectory will tend to a certain stable point [25,28,29]. When the maximum Lyapunov exponent is equal to 0, it shows that the system is unstable, and the trajectory may be periodic or bifurcated.…”

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