Chaotic dynamics in food web systems

Fussmann, Gregor F.

doi:10.1142/9789812771582_0001

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…We considered a community to persist if at least one population from every trophic level was always above this threshold. Note that extinction can occur either because the carnivore has a zero equilibrium (trivial equilibrium) or as a consequence of extinction through extreme oscillations [37]. For stability, we used the same numerical simulations as above, but also evaluated the maximum and minimum population density from t ¼ 14 000 to 21 000.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evolutionary and plastic rescue in multitrophic model communities

Kovach-Orr

Fussmann

2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Under changing environmental conditions, intraspecific variation can potentially rescue populations from extinction. There are two principal sources of variation that may ultimately lead to population rescue: genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity. We compared the potential for evolutionary rescue (through genetic diversity) and plastic rescue (through phenotypic plasticity) by analysing their differential ability to produce dynamical stability and persistence in model food webs. We also evaluated how rescue is affected by the trophic location of variation. We tested the following hypotheses: (i) plastic communities are more likely to exhibit stability and persistence than communities in which genetic diversity provides the same range of traits. (ii) Variation at the lowest trophic level promotes stability and persistence more than variation at higher levels. (iii) Communities with variation at two levels have greater probabilities of stability and persistence than communities with variation at only one level. We found that (i) plasticity promotes stability and persistence more than genetic diversity; (ii) variation at the second highest trophic level promotes stability and persistence more than variation at the autotroph level; and (iii) more than variation at two trophic levels. Our study shows that proper evaluation of the rescue potential of intraspecific variation critically depends on its origin and trophic location.

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Evolutionary and plastic rescue in multitrophic model communities

Kovach-Orr

Fussmann

2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…Data scarcity in particular can be very limiting in model creation and testing [1]. Traditional statistical modeling methods which use top-down approaches for representing dispersal rely on large-scale empirical datasets [2][3][4]. Moreover, these approaches do not necessarily address the nonlinear complexity of the insect behavior.…”

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A Geosimulation Approach for Data Scarce Environments: Modeling Dynamics of Forest Insect Infestation across Different Landscapes

Anderson

Dragićević

2016

IJGI

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Abstract:Insect infestation behaves as a complex system, characterized by non-linear spatial dynamics and emergent patterns that evolve from smaller to larger spatial scales. The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive species that has infested and killed millions of ash trees across North America. Existing EAB models use traditional statistical approaches that often cannot address the spatiotemporal complexity emerging from EAB infestation processes. Moreover, these studies of insect infestation are limited by a lack of sufficient time series data. The objective of this study is to develop a geosimulation approach to overcome the challenge of data scarcity and represent EAB infestation at a regional scale. Geographic information systems (GIS), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and cellular automata (CA) are used to model EAB spread across different hypothetical landscape types. Simulation results represent EAB propagation and indicate different dynamics of spread for each landscape. Urban environments are identified as being at the greatest risk to the infestation. The proposed approach offers a theoretical framework and a modeling tool to represent the propagation of EAB infestation that can be applied with real geospatial datasets and potentially used in forest management strategies.

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“…What the results seem to be telling us is that future experiments should be designed to have a mix of modeling and testing so that the parameter values for the actual experimental kinetics are better defined. This is a significant analytical and experimental challenge, but the need is also emphasized in the review paper byFussmann (2007).However, there were several interesting parallels between the experimental and model results. The nature and magnitudes of the model outputs were quite similar, and in one case they were made identical to theexperimental results.…”

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confidence: 99%