Chaos — a model for the outbreak of war

Saperstein, Alvin M.

doi:10.1038/309303a0

Cited by 79 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Secondly, we show the possibility that the local government system in a developing nation as modeled can display remarkable stability in some circumstances driven by the values of relevant parameters. For a social system the importance of this stability is wellunderstood as in (Saperstein, 1984). We showed how history, or expectations, can determine whether a stable equilibrium, E 1 , gets established.…”

Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What we purport is three-fold: First and foremost, a small change in the local government parameters can lead to major transformation of the system -this is what is known as "chaos" if we confine our attention to mathematical, or physical, systems. Political scientists use a phrase "crisis instability" to describe this extreme sensitivity of the political system to minor perturbations (Gangopadhyay, 2007;2005;Saperstein, 1984). Secondly, we show the possibility that the local government system in a developing nation as modeled can display remarkable stability in some circumstances driven by the values of relevant parameters.…”

Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The switch from stability to chaos can also be triggered by bifurcation properties of equilibrium E 1 . The switch to chaos can be triggered by the emergence of the chaotic regimesconditions for which are detailed in the paper.. From (Saperstein, 1984) we know that a chaotic economic system is a mathematical representation of a crisis-ridden and unstable economic system. Policy makers therefore must take extreme caution in tweaking with the system.…”

Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Application of Theories of Complexity and Chaos to Economic Misgovernance

Gangopadhyay¹,

Elkanj²,

Rahman³

2011

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

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Problem statement:In this study we develop a comprehensive model involving local taxes, intergovernmental transfers and bureaucratic corruption to characterize a fiscal equilibrium in order to explain the provision of local (public) expenditure in developing nations. The main goal of the research is to explain economic misgovernance as an equilibrium phenomenon, which is therefore expected to persist over time despite serious economic and social costs. Approach: We develop an interactive model of fiscal gaming to understand economic misgovernance in the context of game theory. Resutls: It is constructively argued that the proposed fiscal game is beset with multiple equilibria and the consequent indeterminacy. The possibility of unstable equilibria, or an absence of pure-strategy equilibrium renders the system highly fragile. We also demonstrate the possibility of serious bifurcations of a stable fiscal equilibrium that loses stability with changes in values of relevant parameters. We extend this model further to argue how the chaotic behavior and complexities can characterize the dynamics of decision-making in this present context. Conclusion: The emergence of chaos can undermine the efficiency and predictability of the equilibrium of the proposed fiscal game, which can in turn seriously impinge on the quality of local goods in developing nations. We argue that an understanding of the fragility and complexity of local government system is essential for policy makers for achieving a sustainable local government system in developing nations.

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Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simple Approximation and Complex Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Application of Theories of Complexity and Chaos to Economic Misgovernance

Gangopadhyay¹,

Elkanj²,

Rahman³

2011

Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

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“…In our view mathematical modeling and its computerbased implementation can contribute to a deeper understanding and the development of new instruments for conflict-resolution, cooperation and peace building Complex systems analysis and non-linear dynamics provides a useful framework for conflict analysis. The concept of chaos as a model for arms race and war outbreak was introduced by Saperstein 1984Saperstein , 1986, to show that even simple nonlinear deterministic arms race models may lead to the breakdown of predictability. The problem of chaotic dynamics in arms race models was further investigated by Grossmann and Mayer-Kress 1989, using nonlinear difference equations based on the arms race model developed by Richardson 1960 but with discrete time and a damping of the growth of expenditure at upper and lower limits.…”

Section: Conflict Modeling and Non-linear Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

From complex conflicts to stable cooperation: Cases in environment and security

Scheffran

Hannon

2007

Complexity

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Conflict is a dynamic and complex form of human interaction, often emerging from incompatible actions, values and goals, and consuming a considerable amount of resources. Conflicts are an expression of and a contribution to system instability and sometimes lead to chaotic escalation between adversaries, causing a breakdown of social and natural systems. To resolve conflicts, the actors can adjust their actions towards cooperatively stabilizing their interaction and form stable coalitions. To study the dynamics of conflict and the evolution of cooperation, we introduce an integrated framework for modeling the interaction of multiple actors who pursue objectives by allocating their resources to various action paths. In repeated learning cycles actors can adjust their targets and resources to those of other actors, thus shifting from conflict to cooperation. Within the general framework it is possible to study the complexity and instability of multi-actor constellations and the transition to cooperation for specific examples in a wide range of fields, including military security and environmental conflicts in fishery management, energy and climate change.

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“…A number of nonlinear cultural processes have been identified and modeled that are relevant to archaeology, including evolution [20,21], learning [9], innovation [22,23], diffusion, settlement pattern development ( [24]: 50-53; [25,26]; [27]), regional and urban development [24,28], political movements, dynamics of population migration [29,30], international security, the arms race and the outbreak of war [31][32][33], some economic patterns [34][35][36][37], and decisionmaking processes [38,39].…”

Section: What Is Nonlinear Systems Theory?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear Systems Theory, Feminism, and Postprocessualism

Spencer‐Wood

2013

Journal of Archaeology

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This paper explores the insights that nonlinear systems theory can contribute to archaeological theory and method. Dynamical nonlinear systems theory, chaos theory, and complexity theory are first defined, and their interrelationships are discussed. Then chaotic processes are described and exemplified in processes relevant to archaeology. Some applications of nonlinear systems theory in archaeology are briefly reviewed. Next, it is argued that culture is a nonlinear system. Finally, an exploration of similarities, differences, and relationships between nonlinear systems theory, feminist theory, and postprocessual archaeology leads to suggestions for expansions and synergies among these theories.

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Chaos — a model for the outbreak of war

Cited by 79 publications

References 7 publications

Application of Theories of Complexity and Chaos to Economic Misgovernance

Application of Theories of Complexity and Chaos to Economic Misgovernance

From complex conflicts to stable cooperation: Cases in environment and security

Nonlinear Systems Theory, Feminism, and Postprocessualism

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