Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data

Abstract

Following ‘Brexit’, the UK leaving the EU, we analyse the effects of changes in the legal framework on EU residents and compare them with UK citizens, employing a difference-in-differences framework. The research focuses on several dependent variables, including labour supply and wages, self-employment rates, and changes in industry, using the Annual Population Survey (APS) data 2012−2022 in the UK (itself based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)), National Insurance Number registrations, and visas issued. The evidence from our analysis on EU post-Brexit migration towards the UK, together with the observed overall increase in rates of (non-EU) net migration, shows rebalancing between EU and non-EU groups. Effects are strongest at the lower-skilled end of the labour market. However, wages for UK natives and EU migrants did not change with respect to each other, controlling for occupation, industry, and other factors.