Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R2 = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R2 = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R2 = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates.

Integrating Spatial Modelling and Space–Time Pattern Mining Analytics for Vector Disease-Related Health Perspectives: A Case of Dengue Fever in Pakistan

“…DF is considered endemic in Pakistan due to its continuous emergence and reemergence during the last 30 years [28,154,155]. It has socio-economic/demographic and environmental concerns and the vital role of socio-economic as well as environmental factors in DF's increase cannot be denied [156,157].…”

“…Lahore is facing rapid urbanization where the population is growing at the rate of 3.2%. This rate is even larger than the average population increase in Pakistan, and hasty urban development is causing several issues such as temperature increases, which creates a suitable environment for dengue mosquitoes [28,[75][76][77]. Naqvi et al [28] explained climate and dengue synergism, reflecting the significance of climatic conditions for dengue transmission in Lahore.…”

“…This rate is even larger than the average population increase in Pakistan, and hasty urban development is causing several issues such as temperature increases, which creates a suitable environment for dengue mosquitoes [28,[75][76][77]. Naqvi et al [28] explained climate and dengue synergism, reflecting the significance of climatic conditions for dengue transmission in Lahore. Heavy rainfall events in the late monsoon (mid-July to mid-September) occur every year in Lahore.…”

“…The bivariate relationship between DFP (dependent variable) and population density (independent variable) was the highest in these areas, revealing the endemic foci during the study period (Figure 6b). Many studies, such as that of Naqvi et al [28], affirm that dengue has evolved as a predominantly urban disease with urban mosquitoes, (i.e., Aedes aegypti). The outbreaks in Lahore were greatly enhanced by variable climatic effects, a lack of vector control, a lack of public health facilities, and uncontrolled urbanization, and population upsurges.…”

“…Several factors played a considerable role in the evolution of dengue in Pakistan. These include the absence of any information platform, ineffective controlling plans, poor public health infrastructure, uncontrolled population growth, and rapid urbanization with deprived sanitation [28,29].…”