Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948–2006 and links with climate variability

Fang, Xingqin; Wang, Anyu; Soi-kun, Fong; Lin, Wenshi

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.003

Cited by 39 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…4 reveal that in the past decades the occurrence of heat extremes (TX90p and TN90p) has increased significantly while cool days and nights (TX10p and TN10p) have decreased. Sillmann et al (2013b) mention for the future CMIP5 scenarios that Mediterranean extreme temperatures increase more strongly in summer than in winter, while in the rest of the world the reverse is more typical (see also Fang et al 2008). This is corroborated by the results presented here, while we find that it actually applies to the entire MENA rather than only the Mediterranean.…”

Section: Changing Temperature Extremessupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are expected to be strongly affected by climate warming, enhancing the already hot and dry environmental conditions (Sanchez et al 2004;Fang et al 2008;Giorgi and Lionello 2008;Önol and Semazzi 2009;Lelieveld et al 2012;Almazroui 2013Almazroui : Önol et al 2014Basha et al 2015;Ozturk et al 2015). Assessments of past climate trends in the MENA often suffered from restricted availability of meteorological data sets, and hence are associated with low confidence (IPCC 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

et al. 2016

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The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43°C, which could increase to about 46°C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50°C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.

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Section: Changing Temperature Extremessupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

et al. 2016

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“…Everyone agrees on the gravity of the effects of a heat wave on human health and mortality and also the damage to agriculture, forests and water resources. It could be considered as the major cause of weather-related fatalities (Robinson, 2001) in recent years, intense heat waves affect many place Over the world, Warm days increased by 2.18 days/decade for the Northern Hemisphere during 1948-2006(Fang et al, 2008. Heat phenomena such as that of the summer in 2003 are thus expected to become more common in the near future (Meehl & Tebaldi, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spatial Analysis of Heat Waves in South East of Iran a Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province

Esmailnejad¹

2016

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ABSTRACT:This study describes the main characteristics of a heat wave that occurred over Sistan and Baluchestan. Province located in the south east of Iran. First, we analyzed daily maximum temperature (DMT) recorded at 12 stations during 1961-2015, in southern of Iran. Then geographical patterns of heat waves (HWs), including those persisting for 2-5 days and longer over this province were studied. To indicate heat waves we used the value of the 90th percentile of the annual maximum temperature distribution at a station an then heat wave (HWs) is defined as the maximum number of consecutive days where the daily maximum temperature the long-term daily 90th percentile. Our analysis showed that Two poles of high frequencies (over 2 days per year) of the HWs during April-October were found in the regions of Jazmourian plain and the northern areas of SB. HWs increased significantly during the studied period in most regions of the province, especially over the northwestern areas and the west Sistan and Baluchestan. Increasing trend of HWs occurred after the 2005s in all regions, especially in northern SB and the southeastern coastal.

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“…While global climate change is anticipated to result in an overall warming over the surface of the Earth, considerable variability in the magnitude and location of these changes has occurred in the past (Fang et al, 2008) and is predicted to continue into the future (Easterling et al, 2008;IPCC, 2007). Likewise, observed warming in the last century has not increased monotonically over time, and long-term trends can be temporarily overridden or augmented by processes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Fang et al, 2008;Stenseth et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Likewise, observed warming in the last century has not increased monotonically over time, and long-term trends can be temporarily overridden or augmented by processes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Fang et al, 2008;Stenseth et al, 2003). In other words, 'environmental signals' such as air and water temperature comprise components fluctuating at varying spatial and temporal frequencies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress

Helmuth

Broitman

Yamane

et al. 2010

Journal of Experimental Biology

197

160

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SummaryPredicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales.

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Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948–2006 and links with climate variability

Cited by 39 publications

References 57 publications

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

The Spatial Analysis of Heat Waves in South East of Iran a Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan Province

Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress

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