Changes of potential catches for North-East Atlantic small pelagic fisheries under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Small and intermediate-size pelagic fisheries are highly impacted by environmental variability and climate change. Their wide geographical distribution and high mobility makes them more likely to shift their distribution under climate change. Here, we explore the potential impact of different climate change scenarios on the four main commercial pelagic species in the North-East Atlantic (NEA): Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou).We used a process-based fisheries model (SS-DBEM), where all the target species were exploited at their maximum sustainable yield (MSY), to project future potential catches under a high and low future greenhouse gas scenario (RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively). Two ocean biogeochemical models (GDFL and MEDUSA) were used to force the environmental conditions. Mackerel and sprat are projected to have increases in a potential catch under both scenarios. Herring and blue whiting are projected to increase under the RCP2.6, but future projections under RCP8.5 show mixed responses with decreases or no changes forecasted.Overall, the potential catch is projected to increase in the northern area of the NEA but is projected to decrease in the southern area. These projected changes are mainly driven by changes in temperature and primary production. Shifts in the distribution of pelagic resources may destabilize existing international agreements on sharing of straddling resources as exemplified by the dispute in sharing of quota for Atlantic mackerel. Novel climate-ready policy approaches considering full species distribution are needed to complement current stock-based approaches.

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

“…Studies have already shown changes to species distributions and communities in these waters (Beaugrand et al, 2009;Bedford et al, 2020;Chivers et al, 2017;Edwards et al, 2021;Simpson et al, 2011). Recent work indicates that fish species in the region will undergo poleward movements to track preferred thermal habitats under further warming (Cheung et al, 2010(Cheung et al, , 2011Fernandes et al, 2020;Jones et al, 2013), consistent with predictions across the globe (Cheung et al, 2009;Okunishi et al, 2012). However, due to highly specific depth and habitat requirements, the future distributions and abundance of species may be prevented from tracking their optimal thermal niche, including in the North Sea (Rutterford et al, 2015).…”