Changes of mean and extreme precipitation and their relationship in Northern Hemisphere land monsoon domain under global warming

Abstract

Reliable projections of monsoon mean and extreme precipitation are vital to water resource management, disaster mitigation as well as policy makings. Since the climate models have better capability in projecting mean precipitation, the relationship between mean and extreme precipitation is a crucial clue for reliable projections of extreme precipitation. However, selections of optimal models in reproducing historical mean/extreme precipitation and their relationship were rarely reported. Here, more credible projections of mean/extreme precipitation and their connections over Northern Hemisphere land monsoon domain (NHLMD) were explored after a systematical assessment of the models from Coupled Model Intercomparsion Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and CMIP5. Results indicated that most models could well reproduce the climatology and the variation of mean precipitation over NHLMD, while large portions have underestimated the extreme precipitation threshold (EPTH) and overestimated the extreme precipitation days (EPDs). However, nearly all models captured the observed robust relationships between mean and extreme precipitation. The projected mean precipitation and EPDs exhibit coherent variations with increase trend over Asian‐North African monsoon, and decrease trend over North American monsoon. The significant positive correlations between mean precipitation and EPDs will continue during 21st century. Considering the relatively low skills and large uncertainty in the simulation and the projection of EPDs, the tight connection could be used to reliably project the future extreme precipitation over the NHLMD using the projection of monsoon mean precipitation via the selected models.

Summer Extreme Rainfall Over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River: Role of Synoptic Patterns in Historical Changes and Future Projections

“…Models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) are primary tools to project future changes in extreme rainfall, but the credibility remains uncertain (Jiang et al., 2023; C. Li, Zwiers, et al., 2021; F. Li et al., 2022; H. Xu et al., 2021). Here we found that CMIP6 models generally projected increased extreme rainfall frequency over MLYR (see definition in Section 2.2.1) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP; i.e., SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5; O'Neill et al., 2016).…”

“…Models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al, 2016) are primary tools to project future changes in extreme rainfall, but the credibility remains uncertain (Jiang et al, 2023;C. Li, Zwiers, et al, 2021;F.…”