Changes in the Structure of Electricity Generation in Poland in View of the EU Climate Package

Abstract

The fuel mix of electricity generation in Poland is currently based predominantly on solid fuels. In addition, the generation power base is outdated. Many of the generating units are inefficient, uneconomic, and do not comply ecological standards, so they should be withdrawn from use in the near future. Poland, which consumes approximately 170 TWh of electricity, needs to determine the direction of the further development of the energy sector. The concepts of covering domestic demand for electricity were outlined by the government in the draft Energy Policy of Poland until 2040, where it was pointed out that the most important pillars of the Energy Policy should be the following: The energy security of the country, competitiveness, and the improvement of the energy efficiency of the economy, as well as limiting the impact on the environment. The article presents the current state of the Polish power sector and the directional changes planned by the government in the area of new capacities for the power industry. The authors present a critical evaluation of this document indicating the opportunities and threats in the area of its implementation. In contrast to many European countries, the Polish government is not considering coal phase-out.

The analysis of similarities between the European Union countries in terms of the level and structure of the emissions of selected gases and air pollutants into the atmosphere

“…The results of dividing the EU countries into homogeneous structures in terms of the level of emissions for each studied substance showed that in many EU countries, the emissions in relation to the size of the economy characterized by the GDP value are incomparably high. In the case of Poland, the main reason for this is to be found in the energy sector based on conventional energy sources ( Gawlik and Mokrzycki, 2019 ) and in the road transport sector ( National Road Safety Programme, 2014 ).…”

Using the LSTM Network to Forecast the Demand for Electricity in Poland

“…Unfortunately, most of the existing hard coal-fired power stations are outdated, low-efficiency units. The age structure of boilers and turbine units used in power plants is extremely variable [6,18], 57% of generating units is over 30 years old, of which as much as 9% is over 40 years old, and new generation units-in operation for fewer than 10 years-account for only 10% [6]. In 2019, the share of coal in electricity production was 73.6% and it was lower by 4.8% compared to 2018.…”

“…Most of the existing hard coal-fired power plants are obsolete and low-efficiency units. The age structure of boilers and turbine sets operated in power plants is very variable [5,6]. New generation units-operating for less than 10 years-constitute only 10% of the capacity structure.…”

“…New generation units-operating for less than 10 years-constitute only 10% of the capacity structure. In total, 57% of generating units are over 30 years old, of which as much as 9% are over 40 years old [6,7].…”

“…Climate and environmental regulations are becoming increasingly stringent for the Polish energy sector, e.g., the introduction of the Best Available Technology (BAT) standard or COM (2018) 773 -a Clean Planet for all -a European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive, and climate neutral economy. As a result of many years of neglect, the coming years will be a time of huge challenges for the Polish energy sector, especially taking into account difficulties in long-term forecasting of demand for electricity [6]. An accurate electricity consumption forecasting model enables users to constantly adjust consuming behaviors when the market changes [8,9].…”