Changes in the spatial and temporal pattern of natural forest cover on Hainan Island from the 1950s to the 2010s：implications for natural forest conservation and management

Abstract

The study of the past, present, and future state and dynamics of the tropical natural forest cover (NFC) might help to better understand the pattern of deforestation and fragmentation as well as the influence of social and natural processes. The obtained information will support the development of effective conservation policies and strategies.In the present study, we used historical data of the road network, topography, and climatic productivity to reconstruct NFC maps of Hainan Island, China, from the 1950s to the 2010s, using the random forest algorithm. We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of NFC change from the 1950s to the 2010s and found that it was highly dynamic in both space and time. Our data showed that grid cells with low NFC were more vulnerable to NFC decrease, suggesting that conservation actions regarding natural forests need to focus on regions with low NFC and high ecological value. We also identified the hot-spots of NFC change, which provides insights into the dynamic changes of natural forests over time. The study of the past, present, and future state and dynamics of the tropical natural forest cover 17 (NFC) might help to better understand the pattern of deforestation and fragmentation as well as 18 the influence of social and natural processes. The obtained information will support the 19 development of effective conservation policies and strategies. In the present study, we used 20 historical data of the road network, topography, and climatic productivity to reconstruct NFC 21 maps of Hainan Island, China, from the 1950s to the 2010s, using the random forest algorithm. 22 We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of NFC change from the 1950s to the 2010s 23 and found that it was highly dynamic in both space and time. Our data showed that grid cells 24 with low NFC were more vulnerable to NFC decrease, suggesting that conservation actions 25 regarding natural forests need to focus on regions with low NFC and high ecological value. We 26 also identified the hot-spots of NFC change, which provides insights into the dynamic changes of 27 natural forests over time. Human activity is the dominant cause of contemporary environmental change worldwide 33 (Lewis & Maslin, 2015). Land use by humans is a major component of the long-term 34 anthropogenic global changes that have defined the "Anthropocene" as a new epoch of geologic 35 time (Ellis et al., 2013; Dirzo et al., 2014; Lewis & Maslin, 2015). The study of land use and 36 land cover change was initially dominated by monitoring and modelling of the ecological 37 impacts of major land cover changes, such as deforestation and desertification, on the natural 38 system (Lambin & Geist, 2006). However, research of land cover change has now become more 39 integrative, focusing on both the drivers and impacts of land change, including a wider range of 40 interacting processes. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land cover 41 change in combination with the social and natural processes mig...