Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Heatwave, Dry and Wet Spells Over West Africa Using CORDEX Simulations

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential response of the seasonal cycle of heatwave (HWDI), dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) spells indices over West Africa for the near (2031-2060) and the far (2071-2100) future periods, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using CORDEX simulations. Although some relative biases during the historical period (1976-2005), the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean outperform the seasonal variability of the above indices over three defined sub-regions of West Africa (i.e., Guinea gulf, west and east Sahel). They have shown significant correlation coefficients and less RMSE. They project an increase in heatwave days for both near and far future periods over whole west Africa region under both RCP scenarios. In addition, the Sahel regions will face to a decrease in wet spells days from March to November, whereas, the Gulf of Guinea will face to a decrease during all the year, except CCCLM simulation which indicates an increase during the retreat phase of the monsoon (October to December). The results also have shown an increase in dry spells over Sahel regions, more pronounced during March-November period, whereas, over Guinea gulf, the increase is observed over the entire year. On the other hand, the months of increasing dry spells and decreasing wet spells coincide, suggesting that countries in these regions could be exposed simultaneously to dry season associated with a high risk of drought and heatwave under future climate conditions.