Changes in the Chinese Property Market: An indicator of the difficulties faced by local authorities

Gaulard, Mylène

doi:10.4000/chinaperspectives.6143

Cited by 10 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the previous section, we described the reasons why property prices might fall suddenly-to remove disequilibria, as the result of structural change, and in response to a debt crisis. Figure 27 shows the way that most commentators in popular media argue that a shock to China's housing/property markets might translate into broader economic crisis and consequent reductions in Chinese GDP (Gaulard 2013). Analysts of all stripes bring up five facts about the Chinese economy in particular to support the argument that a severe real estate-led financial crisis looks likely.…”

Section: A Look At the Five Channels Which Affect China's Bubble Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Bubble economics: how big a shock to China’s real estate sector will throw the country into recession, and why does it matter?

Michael

Zhao²

2021

IJHMA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose By modelling China’s property price changes and their effect on GDP, this study aims to develop a more general model of the costs and benefits driving price bubbles. Design/methodology/approach The authors develop a five-sector dynamic model (using data from China and seven other comparator jurisdictions), resulting in a bubble risk factor. The authors then correlate this risk factor with changes in property prices and resulting changes in GDP. Findings The authors find that economic structures (the way GDP, property prices and other variables change relative to each other) can change during/after a financial crisis. The authors also find that price disequilibria can help predict the risk of a property price fall – which thus reverberates into GDP change. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no dynamic models of price bubbles exist (though many exist of financial bubbles). The authors provide both theoretical novelties (such as providing a model of risk using non-linear differential equations) and practical ones (showing when we can expect Chinese GDP to fall).

show abstract

Section: A Look At the Five Channels Which Affect China's Bubble Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Bubble economics: how big a shock to China’s real estate sector will throw the country into recession, and why does it matter?

Michael

Zhao²

2021

IJHMA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is considered "extra-budgetary," and should not be shared with the central government or the province. With the rise in real estate prices during the decade starting in 2000, it rapidly became a primary fiscal resource for Chinese cities, (14) including very large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. (15) Land as financial leverage has been the driving force behind the accumulation of capital and decentralised urban development in China.…”

Section: Construction Of Buildingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financing Urban Growth in China

Theurillat¹

2017

chinaperspectives

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Illustrated by a case study on the urban development of a medium-sized city in China, this article develops a theoretical framework to help understand the role the financial system plays in the urban development model based on land in China. Three fields of literature have been used in order to link the various mechanisms between land, urban infrastructure, property development, and financing channels in urban production. The case study illustrates the many interactions between local government and real estate businesses, both state and private, as well as local banks, in order to create urban infrastructure that responds to "communal and public" needs and real estate objectives of a "private and individual" nature. In doing so, it highlights the fundamental role of capital in urban production in China.

show abstract

The Dark Side of Globalised Production: Economic ‘Rebalancing’ in Contemporary China

Rolf

2019

International Political Economy Series

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Changes in the Chinese Property Market: An indicator of the difficulties faced by local authorities

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

Bubble economics: how big a shock to China’s real estate sector will throw the country into recession, and why does it matter?

Bubble economics: how big a shock to China’s real estate sector will throw the country into recession, and why does it matter?

Financing Urban Growth in China

The Dark Side of Globalised Production: Economic ‘Rebalancing’ in Contemporary China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About