Changes in the activity and tracks of Arctic cyclones

Sepp, Mait; Jaagus, Jaak

doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9893-7

Cited by 125 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…Sepp and Jaagus (2011) confirmed that the number of cyclones entering the Arctic had increased, but found that the total number of cyclones inside the Arctic had not changed significantly, suggesting a reduction in local cyclogenesis. However, analysis of trends appears to be sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

2017

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The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

2017

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“…A statistically significant increasing trend in the frequency of cyclones entering the Arctic during recent decades has been detected, e.g. by Zhang et al (2004), Trigo (2006), Sorteberg and Walsh (2008), and Sepp and Jaagus (2011), suggesting a shift of cyclone tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. Analogous to synoptic-scale cyclone movements, polar lows have migrated northward (Kolstad and Bracegir-dle, 2008;Zahn and von Storch, 2010), perhaps due to the retreating sea ice margin.…”

Section: Large-scale Circulation and Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 96%

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

2014

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Abstract. Sea ice is the central component and most sensitive indicator of the Arctic climate system. Both the depletion and areal decline of the Arctic sea ice cover, observed since the 1970s, have accelerated since the millennium. While the relationship of global warming to sea ice reduction is evident and underpinned statistically, it is the connecting mechanisms that are explored in detail in this review.Sea ice erodes both from the top and the bottom. Atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice processes interact in nonlinear ways on various scales. Feedback mechanisms lead to an Arctic amplification of the global warming system: the amplification is both supported by the ice depletion and, at the same time, accelerates ice reduction. Knowledge of the mechanisms of sea ice decline grew during the 1990s and This article reviews recent progress in understanding the sea ice decline. Processes are revisited from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice perspectives. There is strong evidence that decisive atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change. Feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness allow for additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks. Large-scale ocean influences on Arctic Ocean hydrology and circulation are highly evident. Northward heat fluxes in the ocean are clearly impacting the ice margins, especially in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic. There is little indication of a direct and decisive influence of the warming ocean on the overall sea ice cover, due to an isolating layer of cold and fresh water underneath the sea ice.

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“…The changes in sea surface temperatures, increases in the frequency and intensity of cyclones, and northward shifts from their tracks during the summer months as well as during other seasons have also been reported (Serreze et al, 2000;McCabe et al, 2001;Sepp and Jaagus, 2011). While these changes are important, little is known about the effects of atmospheric and oceanic changes on the marine ecosystem in the western Arctic Ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Short-term changes in a microplankton community in the Chukchi Sea during autumn: consequences of a strong wind event

et al. 2016

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Abstract.Recent studies indicate an increase in atmospheric turbulence in the Chukchi Sea due to the recent drastic sea-ice reduction during summer months. The importance of the effects of this atmospheric turbulence on the marine ecosystem in this region, however, is not fully understood. To evaluate the effects of atmospheric turbulence on the marine ecosystem, high-frequency sampling (daily) from five layers of the microplankton community between 0 and 30 m at a fixed station in the Chukchi Sea from 10 through 25 September 2013 was conducted. During the study period, a strong wind event (SWE) was observed on 18 and 19 September. The abundance of microplankton was 2.6 to 17.6 cells mL −1 , with a maximum abundance being reported at 20 m on 22 September, while diatoms were the most dominant taxa throughout the study period. The abundance of diatoms, dinoflagellates and ciliates ranged between 1.6 and 14.1, 0.5 and 2.4 and 0.1 and 2.8 cells mL −1 , respectively. Diatoms belonging to 7 genera consisting of 35 species (Cylindrotheca closterium and Leptocylindrus danicus were dominant), dinoflagellates belonging to 7 genera consisting of 25 species (Prorocentrum balticum and Gymnodinium spp. were dominant) and ciliates belonging to 7 genera consisting of 8 species (Strobilidium spp. and Strombidium spp. were dominant) were identified. Within the microplankton species, there were 11 species with abundances that increased after the SWE, while there was no species with an abundance that decreased following the SWE. It is conjectured that atmospheric turbulences, such as that of an SWE, may supply sufficient nutrients to the surface layer that subsequently enhance the small bloom under the weak stratification of the Chukchi Sea Shelf during the autumn months. After the bloom, the dominant diatom community then shifts from centric-dominated to one where centric/pennate are more equal in abundance.

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Changes in the activity and tracks of Arctic cyclones

Cited by 125 publications

References 31 publications

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1

Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review

Short-term changes in a microplankton community in the Chukchi Sea during autumn: consequences of a strong wind event

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