Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo‐Pacific region from 1971 to 2005

Caesar, John; Alexander, Lisa V.; Trewin, Blair; Tsering, Karma; Sorany, L.; Vuniyayawa, V.; Keosavang, N.; Shimana, A.; Htay, M. M.; Karmacharya, J.; Jayasinghearachchi, D. A.; Sakkamart, J.; Soares, Emílio Alberto Amaral; Hung, Li San; Thuong, Le Thi; Hue, C. T.; Dung, Nguyễn Thị Thùy; Hung, Phan Van; Cuong, Hoang Duc; Cuong, Nhu; Sirabaha, S.

doi:10.1002/joc.2118

Cited by 175 publications

(184 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

157

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These indices have been widely used to assess changes in extreme precipitation events because they are representative approaches that have relatively low noise, weak extremes, and strong significance (Caesar et al, 2011;Klein Tank et al, 2006). The ten extreme precipitation indices were classified into two types: precipitation indices (PRCPTOT, RX1day, RX5day, R95 and R99) and SDII; and number of precipitation days (R10mm, R20mm, CWD, and CDD).…”

Section: Extreme Precipitation and Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Song

Sun

et al. 2015

Atmospheric Research

147

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Based on ten indices of extreme precipitation and one drought index (composite index, CI), the trends in extreme events were investigated using a Mann-Kendall non-parametric method at 39 stations in the Songhua River Basin (SHB) during 1960-2013. The regionally averaged wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) increased at a rate of 1.65 mm/year (R 2 = 0.28, P = 0.13), in which 82% of the stations experienced increases, but only 4 stations showed significant positive trends. The annual R95 and R99 exhibited slight upward trends at rates of 1.37 (R 2 = 0.21, P = 0.27) and 1.28 mm/year (R 2 = 0.23, P = 0.23) over the last 54 years; however, there were not significant trends in R95 and R99 at the 0.05 level. PRCPTOT, R95 and R99 showed similar spatial trends, in which positive trends mainly occurred in the northern and southeastern basins. The trends in the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) do not show a prevalent trend (approximately 50% of the stations have a positive trend and the remaining stations have a negative trend). The simple daily intensity index (SDII) significantly decreased at an annual rate of 0.02 mm/d during 1960-2013 (R 2 = 0.66, P b 0.01); spatially, 49% of the stations experienced statistically significant decreases at the 0.05 level based on the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The regionally averaged heavy (R10mm) and very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) and consecutive wet days (CWD) showed no significant trends during the past 54 years; however, several individual extreme precipitation events, such as the flood of 1998 in the SHB, were well detected by these indices. The regionally averaged consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (R 2 = 0.79, P b 0.01) at a rate of 0.22 days/year from 1960 to 2013. All of the stations exhibited statistically significant increases in CDD, excluding the Tongyu station in the western basin. The monthly RX5day values were highest in summer, from June to August, in the SHB; a peak occurred in July (67.5 mm) in the SHB during 1960-2013. The CI peaked in July, with the highest value of 0.2 in the SHB during 1960-2013. However, the two lowest CI values occurred in spring and fall, with values of −0.56 and −0.41, respectively. During April and May, when most of the spring drought events occur, a prevalent trend does not exist; moreover, almost no stations have statistically significant CI increases. In August and September, respectively 79% and 97% of the stations exhibited a CI negative trend, but only 2 and 6 stations showed significant decreases at the 0.05 level. The increasing extreme climate events present a challenge for local water resources management.

show abstract

Section: Extreme Precipitation and Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Song

Sun

et al. 2015

Atmospheric Research

147

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all period of 1950-2003. Caesar et al (2011 demonstrated that widespread significant warming in temperature extremes, especially in the number of warm nights in the Indo-Pacific region during 1971.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution

Dong

Sun

Aguilar³

et al. 2017

Clim Dyn

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Observations have indicated notable changes in climate in the recent decades, including extremes, although the trends in extreme temperature tend to be more statistically significant and spatially coherent compared with extreme precipitation (e.g., Manton et al 2001;Choi et al 2009;Endo et al 2009;Caesar et al 2011). Past extreme rainfall events have resulted in heavy flooding in Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines that have destructive effects on population, infrastructure and the environment (e.g., Tangang et al 2008;Yumul et al 2011;Komori et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Cruz

Sasaki

2017

SOLA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study evaluates the performance of the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM) in simulating the present climate over Southeast Asia to determine its applicability in downscaling climate projections in the region. Simulations from 1989 to 2008 are conducted over the region at 25-km resolution using boundary conditions from the ECMWF ERA-Interim dataset. The topographic effect on rainfall is well represented in NHRCM but can result in wet (dry) biases in the windward (leeward) side of mountains. NHRCM is able to reduce the overestimated rainfall in ERA-Interim, particularly over eastern Philippines and in the Maritime Continent, with improvements in spatial patterns. Both seasonality and daily distribution of rainfall are represented in most regions. On the other hand, there is a tendency to underestimate the number of wet days, especially during the respective wet season of the subregion, and to overestimate daily rainfall intensity. NHRCM also has an overall cold model bias, which reduces the warm bias in ERA-Interim, except for some parts of Indochina during boreal winter and spring. These results indicate the improved representation of present climate in Southeast Asia using NHRCM, and its potential applicability in downscaling climate projections to increase projected climate scenarios for the region.(Citation: Cruz, F. T., and H. Sasaki, 2017: Simulation of present climate over Southeast Asia using the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model. SOLA, 13, 13−18,

show abstract

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo‐Pacific region from 1971 to 2005

Cited by 175 publications

References 37 publications

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Recent changes in extreme precipitation and drought over the Songhua River Basin, China, during 1960–2013

Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution

Simulation of Present Climate over Southeast Asia Using the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About