Changes in Surface and Terrestrial Waters in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Due to Climate Change and Human Activities

Abstract

The surface water area (SWA) and terrestrial water storage (TWS) are both essential metrics for assessing regional water resources. However, the combined effects of climate change and human activities on the dynamics of the SWA and TWS have not been extensively researched within the context of the CPEC. To fill this gap, we first analyzed the annual changes in the SWA and TWS in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) region in recent decades using the methods of correlation analysis and Geodetector. Our findings indicate that Sindh exhibited the highest increase in the SWA at 8.68 ha/km2, whereas FATA showed the least increase at 0.2 ha/km2 from 2002 to 2018. Punjab exhibited a significant decrease in TWS, with a slope of −0.48 cm/year. Azad Kashmir followed with a decrease in TWS at a rate of −0.36 cm/year. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA exhibited an insignificant increase in TWS, with values of 0.02 cm/year and 0.11 cm/year, respectively. TWS was significantly positively correlated with the SWA in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, other regions showed inconsistent changes; in particular, a decline was observed in Gilgit–Baltistan. The changes in TWS in Balochistan were primarily influenced by the SWA and climate change, while TWS changes in FATA were mainly affected by climate change. In addition, human activities had a primary impact on the TWS changes in Azad Kashmir, Punjab, and Sindh. The influencing factors of TWS changes in different regions of the CPEC mainly involved a dual-factor enhancement and the nonlinear weakening of single factors. These results highlight that under the effect of climate change and human activities, TWS may not increase as surface water area increases. This study contributes to a better understanding of water resource dynamics and can aid in the development of strategies for the efficient and sustainable use of water resources in the CPEC.