Changes in support for Nicaragua’s Sandinista National Liberation Front during democratic backsliding

Abstract

This article examines changes in the determinants of support for Nicaragua’s Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), a party that has achieved dominant status during democratic backsliding. Using three waves of Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) surveys from 2006 to 2016, we present binary logit models to test four hypotheses on the evolution of support for the FSLN. Following the theory of how the elite’s cues and messages impact public opinion, we find substantial shifts in the determinants of support for the former guerrilla group as democratic backsliding deepened. We report that the FSLN turned into an ideologically pragmatic party after initially appealing to leftist supporters. Economic views also profoundly impact the party’s support – before and after voters elected it to the presidency in 2006.