Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Spangehl, Thomas; Reyers, Mark; Zacharias, Stefan

doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0230-4

Cited by 219 publications

(242 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…A poleward shift of the Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track in response to GHG-driven climate change are also suggested by several other studies using different models and scenarios (e.g. Bengtsson et al 2006;Lionello & Giorgi 2007;Pinto et al 2007).…”

Section: Holocene Climate In the Middle East And Europe: Models And Osupporting

confidence: 61%

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Black

Brayshaw

Rambeau

2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society-particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

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Section: Holocene Climate In the Middle East And Europe: Models And Osupporting

confidence: 61%

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Black

Brayshaw

Rambeau

2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…Early publications, for example, by Tinz (1996), Chen and Hellström (1999), Koslowski and Glaser (1999), Jevrejeva (2001), Omstedt and Chen (2001) and Andersson (2002) agreed that there has been a north-eastward shift in low-pressure tracks, which is consistent with a more zonal circulation over the Baltic Sea basin and the observed trend of a more positive NAO index, at least up to the 1990s (Trenberth et al 2007). A northward shift in low-pressure tracks is also consistent with model projections of anthropogenic climate change, as pointed out by Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004), Bengtsson et al (2006), Leckebusch et al (2006), Pinto et al (2007) and, more recently, Lehmann et al (2011). Jacobeit et al (2001Jacobeit et al ( , 2003 and Hurrell and Folland (2002) discussed the strong temporal variability in the relationship between the general circulation of the atmosphere and surface climate characteristics over the past 300 years.…”

Section: Long-term Circulation Changessupporting

confidence: 82%

Recent Change—Atmosphere

Rutgersson

Jaagus

Schenk

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter describes observed changes in atmospheric conditions in the Baltic Sea drainage basin over the past 200-300 years. The Baltic Sea area is relatively unique with a dense observational network covering an extended time period. Data analysis covers an early period with sparse and relatively uncertain measurements, a period with well-developed synoptic stations, and a final period with 30+ years of satellite data and sounding systems. The atmospheric circulation in the European/Atlantic sector has an important role in the regional climate of the Baltic Sea basin, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation. Warming has been observed, particularly in spring, and has been stronger in the northern regions. There has been a northward shift in storm tracks, as well as increased cyclonic activity in recent decades and an increased persistence of weather types. There are no long-term trends in annual wind statistics since the nineteenth century, but much variation at the (multi-)decadal timescale. There are also no long-term trends in precipitation, but an indication of longer precipitation periods and possibly an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

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“…Even though the observed trends are moderate, the rainfall shortage increase for most of Spain would have to be assumed. It would be in agreement with different scenarios of future rainfall regime in the Mediterranean region, forced by the increased atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations (Sánchez et al, 2004;Bengtsson et al, 2006;Pinto et al, 2007). These scenarios would be characterized by a substantial drying, especially in the warm season, with precipitation shortage exceeding 25% (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008).…”

Section: Time Trends Of < S > Cs and S Msupporting

confidence: 73%

Long‐term rainfall monthly shortage in Spain: spatial patterns, statistical models and time trends

Martínez

Lana

Burgueño

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Several patterns of the monthly rainfall shortage in Spain are investigated by using long-term series of monthly rain amounts, which were recorded at 34 observatories and compiled by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET (Spanish Ministry of Environment). Owing to the strong variability of the pluviometric regime along the year, the median of the empirical monthly rain amounts is estimated for every month of the year. A monthly shortage is then defined as the difference between the corresponding monthly median and the monthly rain amount. A spell of monthly shortage is a set of consecutive months with amounts below the corresponding monthly medians. Five magnitudes are defined to characterize the rainfall shortage: (1) the spell length, L (months); (2) the average monthly shortage of a spell, (mm); (3) the largest monthly shortage in a spell, S M (mm); (4) the total rainfall shortage for every spell, CS (mm) and (5) the rainfall amount for every shortage spell, CR. The whole number of spells, N, and the number of spells as a function of shortage lengths, N(L), are compared with those deduced from the distribution theory of runs (TR). Instead of a geometric distribution, a Markov chain of first order with two states becomes a better option for the probability density function of L. Although the empirical distributions of < S >, S M and CS are well fitted by a Pearson-type III model for most gauges, the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution is sometimes a better choice. The distribution of CR is well fitted by gamma and especially Poisson-gamma models. Besides these statistical analyses, an interpretation of the rainfall shortage is attempted by looking for links between the distributions of cumulative monthly shortage (CMS), and cumulative number of months (CNM) with rainfall deficit. Both distributions generate normalized shortage curves (NSC), which follow similar laws to the normalized rainfall curves (NRC), used, for instance, in the study of daily rainfall amounts. Finally, statistical significance of local and field time trends of < S >, S M and CS are evaluated.

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Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM

Cited by 219 publications

References 49 publications

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Recent Change—Atmosphere

Long‐term rainfall monthly shortage in Spain: spatial patterns, statistical models and time trends

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