Changes in southeastern USA summer precipitation event types using instrumental (1940–2018) and tree-ring (1790–2018) data

Mitchell, T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Patterson, Thomas

doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ab4cd6

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…A higher frequency of BA years should promote stronger climate-growth responses in comparison to a higher frequency of AA years as our data suggests. However, coupled with this, the type of rainfall event is important as several studies (Knapp et al 2016, Mitchell et al 2019 found that 'soaker' events caused by summertime slow-moving precipitation events (e.g. stalled frontal system or tropical cyclone, stationary front) almost entirely controlled latewood growth of longleaf pine.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing precipitation variability and climate-growth responses of five tree species in North Carolina, USA

Catherwood,

Knapp

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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We examined the effects of increasing summertime precipitation variability from 1950–2022 on the radial-growth responses of five tree species native to central North Carolina, USA. Tree-ring data were collected from chestnut oak, post oak, longleaf pine, shortleaf pine, and Virginia pine and processed following standard dendrochronology procedures. Adjusted latewood chronologies for each species were created and correlated with either monthly or multi-monthly combinations of summertime precipitation for above average (AA, >1 σ above mean), below average (BA, <-1 σ below mean), and near average (NA, <-1, and 1> σ) precipitation years. June–September precipitation variability and other summertime monthly combinations significantly increased during the study period, with a 10.2% increase in AA/BA years during the 21st century. Climate-growth correlations ranged from 0.40–0.51 using all years within the study period. However, using AA and BA years exclusively, climate-growth responses ranged from 0.44–0.71, with post oak and longleaf pine experiencing significantly higher correlations. No significant changes in climate-growth responses occurred for chestnut oak, shortleaf pine, and Virginia pine. These findings suggest the effects of increased precipitation variability on climate-growth responses are species-dependent and affected by the precipitation classification (i.e., AA or BA years). These responses help explain temporal variations in the strength of climate-growth responses, particularly for some species, and offer additional considerations for dendroclimatological research.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing precipitation variability and climate-growth responses of five tree species in North Carolina, USA

Catherwood,

Knapp

2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…The data and computation of water yield (differences between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) were done using a web based application of Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute Known as KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl)developed by Sillmann, et al [14]. Many climate change studies have been undertaken using data from this source [15][16][17]. The coordinates of each of the three basins namely: Kainji Lake Basin (KLB), Sokoto-Rima Basin (SRB) and…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

21st Century Trend of Water Yield in River Basins of Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones, Nigeria

Abdulkadir

G.N

et al. 2020

International Journal of Climate Research

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In Nigeria, the climate in recent years has witnessed significant variability across the various ecological zones due to climate change. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyse the 21st century trend of water yield in river basins of Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones, Nigeria. The data and computation were done using KNMI Climate Explorer. The coordinates of the basins were used to derive the annual and seasonal water yield. Projections were produced for near-term (2019-2048), mid-term (2049-2078) and long-term (2079-2100) using ensemble mean of CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Findings revealed that water yield during dry season demonstrates decreasing range of (-0.05 to-0.1 mm/day). It was observed that the decrease were only significant for RCP8.5 but not under middle and low emission trajectories. As for wet season, it reveals significant increasing trends at 0.05 significant levels with respect to RCP8.5 but not significant in low and middle emission scenarios. Regional trend analysis of average annual water yields reveals no significant positive trends for all the RCPs. This is to say that despite the projected increasing pattern of average annual water yield observed over Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones, incidences of water crisis cannot be ruled out. Contribution/Originality: This paper's primary contribution is finding that river basins of Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones of Nigeria will be significantly affected by the anthropogenic climate change at highest emission trajectory. The result can act as guidelines for strategic planning against water crisis as envisaged by the projection. 1. INTRODUCTION Climate projection is usually a statement about the likelihood that something will happen several decades to centuries in the future if certain influential conditions develop. Scenarios however, represent alternative possible ways in which the future may unfold [1]. Globally, it is estimated that by 2050 between 150 and 200 million people could be displaced as a consequence of phenomena, such as sea level rise and increased extreme weather events [2-5]. Furthermore, the Global Environmental Outlook's Baseline Scenario OECD, (2012) cited in Adefisan [6] projects increasing strains on water resources through 2050, with an additional 2.3 billion people expected to be living in areas with severe water stress, especially in North and South Africa and South and Central Asia. WWAP (United Nations World Water Assessment Programme) [7] predicts the world could face a 40% global water deficit by 2030 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Africa's rising population is driving demand for water under

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“…Precipitation (Figure 2, right column) patterns are highly dependent on locations and seasons with the highest values over the southeast and Pacific Northwest. The high precipitation patterns found over southeastern CONUS mainly occur in summer and are likely generated by tropical systems (Mitchell et al, 2019) or other mesoscale atmospheric circulations (Barlow et al, 2019). In contrast, the high precipitation over the northwestern (with values exceeding 20 mm/day in Quinault and 10 mm/day in Darrington stations) occurs in wintertime and may be due to the synoptic‐scale atmospheric fronts (e.g., Castro et al, 2012; Yu et al, 2022).…”

Section: Meteorological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of NA‐CORDEX regional climate models, reanalysis and in situ gridded‐observational data sets against the U.S. Climate Reference Network

SY,

Madonna,

Serva

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate models' capability of reproducing the present climate at both global and regional scales still needs improvements. The assessment of model performance critically depends on the data sets used as comparators/references. Reanalysis and gridded observational data sets have been frequently used for this purpose. However, none of these can be considered an accurate reference data set because of their associated uncertainties and full representativity. This paper, for the first time, uses in‐situ measurements from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) spanning the period 2006–2020 to assess daily temperature and precipitation from a suite of dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs; driven by ERA‐Interim) involved in NA‐CORDEX. The assessment is also extended to the most recent and widely used Earth system reanalyses (ERA5, ERA‐Interim, MERRA2 and NARR) and a few in situ‐based gridded data sets (Daymet, PRISM, Livneh and CPC). Results show that biases for the different data sets are seasonally and subregionally dependent. On average, reanalysis and in situ‐based gridded data sets are warmer (with biases exceeding 0.3°C) than USCRN year‐round, while RCMs are colder (warmer) in winter (summer) with biases ranging from −0.5 (0.9)°C for RCMs at 0.44° to −0.2 (1.4)°C for CRCM5‐UQAM‐11. In situ‐based gridded data sets provide the best performance in most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) regions compared to reanalyses and RCMs, but still have biases in regions such as the Western mountains and the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, in most US subregions, reanalysis data sets do not outperform reanalysis‐driven RCMs. Likewise, for both reanalysis data sets and RCMs, temperature and precipitation biases vary considerably depending on the local orography, with larger temperature biases for coarser model resolutions and precipitation biases for reanalysis.

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Changes in southeastern USA summer precipitation event types using instrumental (1940–2018) and tree-ring (1790–2018) data

Cited by 11 publications

References 42 publications

Increasing precipitation variability and climate-growth responses of five tree species in North Carolina, USA

Increasing precipitation variability and climate-growth responses of five tree species in North Carolina, USA

21st Century Trend of Water Yield in River Basins of Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones, Nigeria

Assessment of NA‐CORDEX regional climate models, reanalysis and in situ gridded‐observational data sets against the U.S. Climate Reference Network

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