Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G.; Greve, Peter; Pitman, A. J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

doi:10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017

Cited by 86 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…It is further noted that this study only calculates S/N ratios at a given warming threshold from a high-carbon scenario of future climate change (RCP8.5): Such a scenario, which crosses a wide range of temperatures, is a necessary requirement for the framing of results presented in both sections 2.1 and 3. However, previous studies have shown that, for many ETCCDIs, the response to the same increase in global temperatures is largely similar across RCP scenarios-that is, scenario uncertainty across RCPs is significantly smaller than corresponding model uncertainty Seneviratne et al, 2016;Wartenburger et al, 2017).…”

Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 93%

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Harrington

Frame

King

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these thresholds may result in dangerous interference of the climate system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change texts have developed thresholds in which the aim is to limit warming to well below 2 °C of warming above preindustrial levels, with an additional aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, denoting a specific threshold of global mean temperatures as a target for avoiding damaging climate impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations in the magnitude of these projected impacts. This study introduces a simple framework to quantify the magnitude of this heterogeneity in changing climate hazards at 1.5 °C of warming, using case studies of emergent increases in temperature and rainfall extremes. For example, we find that up to double the amount of global warming (3.0 °C) is needed before people in high‐income countries experience the same relative changes in extreme heat that low‐income nations should anticipate after only 1.5 °C of warming. By mapping how much warming is needed in one location to match the impacts of a fixed temperature threshold in another location, this “temperature of equivalence” index is a flexible and easy‐to‐understand communication tool, with the potential to inform where targeted support for adaptation projects should be prioritized in a warming world.

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Section: Methodological Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 93%

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Harrington

Frame

King

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…To assign the same weight to all simulations, all GCM output has been bi-linearly interpolated to a horizontal resolution of 2.5 • × 2.5 • prior to performing the empirical sampling analysis. Wartenburger et al (2017) have studied the natural variability in investigating the spread among all ensemble members of a particular model. They found that the model spread has essentially no impact on the ensemble mean or median, and even the spread is almost similar.…”

Section: Empirical Sampling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the West and Central Africa subregions for an increase of global mean temperature of 1.5 • C and 2 • C above the pre-industrial period, based on Seneviratne et al (2016) and as a followup to Wartenburger et al (2017). West and Central Africa are particularly threatened by climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rainfed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change (Sultan and Gaetani 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Diedhiou

Bichet

Wartenburger

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 • C and 2 • C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central Sahel, Eastern Sahel, Guinea Coast and Central Africa including Congo Basin.While there are several uncertainties and large ensemble spread in the projections of temperature and precipitation indices, most models show high-impact changes in climate extremes at subregional scale. At these smaller scales, temperature increases within the WAF domain are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at 1.5 • C and at 2 • C) and heat waves are expected to be more frequent and of longer duration. The most intense warming is observed over the drier regions of the Sahel, in the central Sahel and particularly in the eastern Sahel, where the precipitation and the soil moisture anomalies have the highest probability of projected increase at a global warming of 1.5 • C. Over the wetter regions of the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, models project a weak change in total precipitation and a decrease of the length of wet spells, while these two regions have the highest increase of heavy rainfall in the WAF domain at a global warming of 1.5 • C. Western Sahel is projected by 80% of the models to experience the strongest drying with a significant increase in the length of dry spells and a decrease in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. This study suggests that the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm is not valid within the WAF domain.

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“…Recently, there are increasing efforts devoted to the investigation of the changes in extreme climate events at the 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels and the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C (Donnelly et al, ; Dosio & Fischer, ; Karmalkar & Bradley, ; King & Karoly, ; King et al, ; Schleussner et al, ; Wartenburger et al, ; Xu et al, ). However, nearly all published results are based on the existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data, which were not specifically designed for the assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments

Zhou

Zou

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

116

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Extreme high‐temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high‐temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low‐warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer‐lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%–46% of the increases in extreme high‐temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%–49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

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Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

Cited by 86 publications

References 29 publications

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments

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