Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration over Lokok and Lokere catchments in Uganda

Mubialiwo, Ambrose; Chelangat, C.; Onyutha, Charles

doi:10.1007/s42865-021-00031-y

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 79 publications

(115 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Over the period 1948-2008, the southern and northern parts of Uganda exhibited positive and negative precipitation trends, respectively [20]. From 1948 to 2016, northeastern Uganda (or the Karamoja region) was characterized by decreasing precipitation and increasing PET trends [21]. PET in the Eastern Lake Kyoga basin exhibited an increase over the period 1961-2008 [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We used CMIP6 GCMs to quantify climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda. Future changes are assessed based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 over the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Both precipitation and PET are generally projected to increase across all the WMZs. Annual PET in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s will increase in the ranges 1.1–4.0%, 4.8–7.9%, 5.1–11.8%, and 5.3–17.1%, respectively. For the respective periods, annual precipitation will increase in the ranges 4.0–7.8%, 7.8–12.5%, 7.9–19.9%, and 6.9–26.3%. The lower and upper limits of these change ranges for both precipitation and PET are, respectively, derived under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Climate change will impact on PET or precipitation disproportionately across the WMZs. While the eastern WMZ (Kyoga) will experience the largest projected precipitation increase especially towards the end of the century, the southern WMZ (Victoria) exhibited the largest PET increase. Our findings are relevant for understanding hydrological impacts of climate change across Uganda, in the background of global warming. Thus, the water sector should devise and implement adaptation measures to impede future socioeconomic and environmental crises in the country.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, the Hargreaves method (Hargreaves and Samani, 1982; 1985) requires only minimum and maximum temperature and can be suitable for estimating PET over data‐scarce areas. A few recent studies (Mubialiwo et al ., 2020; 2021b; Mukasa et al ., 2020; Onyutha et al ., 2020; Chelangat and Abebe, 2021; Onyutha et al ., 2021) have successfully applied the Hargreaves method in different parts of Uganda or the study area. In this line, the Hargreaves method was adopted in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This requirement of validating satellite or reanalysis products prior to their application was also considered in other past studies across Uganda. Examples of such studies include Mubialiwo et al (2020Mubialiwo et al ( , 2021aMubialiwo et al ( , 2021b and Onyutha et al (2020). The procedure followed in validating CFSR can be found in section 2.2.2.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Uganda, a number of studies (Kansiime et al ., 2013; Nyeko‐Ogiramoi et al ., 2013; Egeru et al ., 2019; Mubialiwo et al ., 2020; 2021a; 2021b) have been conducted to understand variations in hydro‐climatic variables such as precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), river flow, and temperature. Most of these studies were conducted on the scales of a catchment, sub‐catchment, or region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples of such products include Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) (Adler et al ., 2018), Princeton Global Forcing (PGF) (Sheffield et al ., 2006), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Saha et al ., 2014), Climate Research Unit (CRU) Time series version 4.0 (Harris et al ., 2020), and Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) (Funk et al ., 2015). A number of recent studies (Hua et al ., 2019; Alfaro et al ., 2020; Martinez‐Cruz et al ., 2020; Mubialiwo et al ., 2020; 2021b; Ngoma et al ., 2021; Onyutha et al ., 2021) have made use of the reanalyses and/or satellite products. The increasing use of satellite or reanalyses products is largely attributed to their global coverage, fine spatial and temporal resolutions, and long‐term record periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Water availability trends across water management zones in Uganda

Onyutha

Asiimwe

Muhwezi

et al. 2021

Atmospheric Science Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assessed trends in gridded (0.25 Â 0.25 ) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and precipitation minus PET (PMP) across the four water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda including Kyoga, Victoria, Albert, and Upper Nile. The period considered was 1979-2013. Validation of CFSR datasets was conducted using precipitation observed at eight meteorological stations across the country.Observed precipitation trend direction was satisfactorily reproduced by CFSR data extracted at five out of eight stations. Negative (positive) values of longterm PMP mean were considered to indicate areas characterized by water scarcity (surplus). Areas with large positive PMP were confined to Lake Victoria and mountains such as Rwenzori and Elgon. The largest negative PMP values were in the arid and semi-arid areas of north and northeastern Uganda. The null hypothesis H 0 (no trend) was rejected (p < 0.05) for increasing annual precipitation trends across the various WMZs except in the extreme eastern parts of the Upper Nile, Kyoga, and Victoria WMZs (or areas along the boundary of Uganda and Kenya). The H 0 (no trend) was rejected (p < 0.05) for decreasing trends in annual PET over West Nile region of the Upper Nile, western parts of Victoria, and the Albert WMZs. For increasing trend in PMP, the H 0 (no trend) was rejected (p < 0.05) across the various WMZs except around the Mount Elgon area. The study findings are relevant for planning of water resources management across the different WMZs in the country.

show abstract

Hydrodynamic Modelling of Floods and Estimating Socio-economic Impacts of Floods in Ugandan River Malaba Sub-catchment

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

River Malaba sub-catchment tends to experience dramatic flooding events, with several socio-economic impacts to the nearby communities, such as loss of lives and destructions of physical infrastructure. Analysis of spatiotemporal extents to which settlements, crops and physical infrastructures tend to be inundated are vital for predictive planning of risk-based adaptation measures. This paper presents a case study on flood risk assessment for Ugandan River Malaba sub-catchment. We applied the two-dimensional Hydraulic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (2D HEC-RAS) for modelling of flooding extents. We considered extreme flow quantiles, lower and upper quantiles corresponding to the 95% confidence interval limits aimed at determining uncertainties in the flooding extents. Spatial extents of inundation on human settlement, land cover and infrastructure were analysed with respect to return periods of extreme flow quantiles. Finally, we estimated economic loss on infrastructure due to flooding. Results from the 2D HEC-RAS model were satisfactorily comparable with the results of observations. Amongst the land use types, cropland exhibited the highest vulnerability with at least 10,234.8 hectare (ha) susceptible to flooding event of 100-year return period (YRP). Inundated built-up land-use exhibited the highest vulnerability percentage increase (90%) between 2- and 100-YRP. In US Dollar, about US$ 33 million and US$ 39 million losses are estimated at 2- and 100-YRP, respectively, due to inundated rice gardens and these indicate a looming high risk of household food insecurity and poverty. Several infrastructure including 15 academic institutions, 12 health facilities, 32 worshiping places remain annually vulnerable to flooding. At least 6 km and 7 km of road network are also susceptible to flooding under extreme flows of return periods 2 and 100 years, respectively. Churches exhibited the highest economic losses of US$ 855,065 and US$ 1,623,832 at 2-YRP and 100-YRP, respectively. This study findings are relevant for planning the development of sustainable flood risk adaptation pathways given the established destructions within the sub-catchment due to flooding.

show abstract

Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration over Lokok and Lokere catchments in Uganda

Cited by 6 publications

References 79 publications

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

Water availability trends across water management zones in Uganda

Hydrodynamic Modelling of Floods and Estimating Socio-economic Impacts of Floods in Ugandan River Malaba Sub-catchment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About