Changes in Potentially Suitable Areas for Fruit Utilization of Acer truncatum in China under Climate Change

Abstract

Acer truncatum is a unique multipurpose woody oil species in China. It is crucial to study the geographical distribution patterns of fruit utilization of A. truncatum under climate change scenarios to ensure the rational site selection and germplasm resource protection of this tree. In this study, the Maxent model and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis technology were used to construct a suitable area model for the plant under current climate conditions by selecting 138 sample points and 15 ecological factors, and to predict the potentially suitable areas under four climate scenarios in 2050 and 2070. The results showed that under current conditions, the main suitable areas were concentrated in China, such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Hebei, with an area of 1.64 × 106 km2. Under future conditions, the suitable area in 2050 and 2070 showed an expanding trend compared with that in the current period, and the expansion ratios were as high as 36.52% and 45.80% under the RCP2.6-2050 and RCP8.5-2070 scenarios, respectively. The expansion area is concentrated in the middle latitudes of China (38° N~52° N), basically covering the middle and northeast of Inner Mongolia and the middle and north of Heilongjiang, while the loss area is mainly located in northern Sichuan, northern Hubei and eastern Henan. The center of the suitable area is expected to migrate to the northeast in 2050 and 2070, with a maximum migration distance of 355.46 km. Under future conditions, the suitable area shrinks in low-latitude regions and expands in high-latitude regions, and the expanded area becomes larger than the contracted area. This conclusion provides important guidelines for the directional cultivation of A. truncatum for utilization of its fruit.