Changes in population exposure to extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Shen, Liucheng; Wen, Jiahong; Zhang, Yuqing; Ullah, Safi; Meng, Xiangchun

doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100317

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The severe risks due to climate extremes are determined both by climate extremes and population size involved, that is, population exposure to extremes, which is usually defined as climate extremes multiplied by the population amount affected by climate extremes (Jackson et al., 2021; Qin, 2022; Shen et al., 2022; Ullah et al., 2023; Yu et al., 2021). China had a population of about 1,269 million in 2000 according to the World Bank, who were mainly concentrated in the NC and SC regions of China with a population density of more than 100 people/km 2 (Figure 7a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population exposure to climate extremes was defined as climate extremes multiplied by the population amount involved in climate extremes (Shen et al., 2022; Ullah et al., 2023). A compound index of population exposure to multiple extremes to investigate compound climate extremes (Qin, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides frequencies and intensities of climate extremes, the risks associated with climate extremes are also determined by the population size affected, that is, population exposure to extremes (Chen & Sun, 2021; Jackson et al., 2021; Jones et al., 2018; Li et al., 2022; Qin, 2022; Shen et al., 2022; Ullah et al., 2023; Yu et al., 2021; Zhang, Ma, et al., 2023). The population distribution is affected by the birth rate, migration such as urbanization and other factors, with high spatiotemporal variability (Jones & O'Neill, 2016; Jones et al., 2018; Qin, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Qin,

Xie

2023

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Paris Agreement proposed two global warming levels relative to the preindustrial period, with the ideal objective of 1.5°C warming and an upper boundary of 2.0 °C. However, the years when the temperature will first reach 1.5 or 2.0°C vary in different regions. Therefore, climate extremes and their population exposure are still not clear at regional or global warming levels. This study investigated climate extremes in China at different Chinese and global warming with 16 CMIP6 models under the middle SSP245 scenario. In China, the year when 1.5°C warming is projected to occur is 2020 and 2035 for 2.0°C warming. These values are more than 10 years earlier than the corresponding global warming levels of 2030 and 2049. Population exposure to percentile‐based heat extremes at global 1.5°C warming is projected to greatly increase relative to those when 1.5°C warming occurs in China due to increases in climate extremes, and exposure to absolute heat extreme indices is projected to decrease from Chinese to global 2.0°C warming under the joint impacts of increases in extremes and population decreases. Furthermore, from Chinese to global 1.5°C warming, about 344 million people will experience increased exposure to heat, wet and dry extremes, and around 468 and 371 million people will be affected by increased exposure to heat–wet and heat–dry extremes, respectively. Thus, a more adaptive strategy should be proposed to cope with the future possible natural hazards caused by heat–wet and heat–dry extremes.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Qin,

Xie

2023

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…population exposure to climate extremes (Jones et al 2018, Zhang et al 2018, 2023b, Chen and Sun 2019, 2021, 2022, Liu et al 2021, Thiery et al 2021. Numerous studies have investigated population exposure to various climate extremes, such as precipitation (Jones et al 2018, Shen et al 2022, flooding (Smith et al 2019), heat (Tuholske et al 2021, Ascencio et al 2023, Zhang et al 2023b, drought (Chen and Sun 2019), and compound extremes (Liu et al 2021. Under 1.5 • C or 2.0 • C global warming, changes in population exposure to climate extremes have been investigated regionally (King et al 2018, Wu et al 2021 and globally (Chen et al 2020, Qin 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of population exposure to climate extremes from regional to global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in CMIP6 models

Qin,

Xie,

Jia

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The intensities and occurrences of heat extremes are projected to increase in a warmer climate, and relevant policies have been established to address different warming levels. However, how climate extremes change at regional warming levels is not well-known because changes in temperature vary over different regions. This study investigated climate extremes and population exposure to these extremes at regional and global 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C warming over 58 reference regions with 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase models. The years of reaching local 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C warming occurred earlier than the timing of global warming over certain land areas, with more than 30 years advance in northern high latitude land areas. Heat extremes are projected to increase in all reference regions under regional and global 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C warming. Moving from regional to global 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C warming, heat extremes were found to increase over most land areas, especially over mid- and high-latitude areas. Population exposure to climate extremes increased over more than half the land regions under regional to global 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C warming. Changes in population exposure to absolute heat extremes were mainly generated by changes in population over about 34 land regions, whereas changes in population exposure to percentile-based heat extremes over more than 40 land regions were mostly due to changes in climate extremes. These results provided references to establish relevant strategies at regional scale to address possible risks related to climate extremes.

show abstract

“…One of the most critical consequences of climate change is that the frequency and intensity of extreme events are projected to increase as the global mean temperature continues to rise (Trenberth et al 2015;IPCC 2018;Zhu et al 2021a). In particular, extreme precipitation events are among the most impactful climate-related hazards, and their frequency is expected to increase in the coming decades (Shen et al 2022; Liu et al 2020). This is particularly true for southern Africa, where extreme precipitation events have already had enormous socioeconomic impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part II: Future changes under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C warming levels

Samuel

Dosio

Mphale

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We compare the consistency of the future response of extreme precipitation to 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) above the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) over four major basins in southern Africa. In particular, we compare the results from large ensembles of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX and CORE). The results show that the signal of the changes under all GWLs is generally consistent across the ensembles, particularly for the spatially averaged medians over each basin. Generally, all the ensembles project an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily rainfall intensity (SDII) and a decrease in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) and the total number of rainy days (RR1) over the basins under all GWLs. However, there are differences in the signal and robustness of the projected changes among the ensembles. For instance, CORDEX projects a robust increase in heavy precipitation days over most of the Zambezi basin under 2.0°C and 3.0°C GWLs, while CORE projects a robust decrease over most of the basins. Additionally, the projected decrease in RR1 is robust over most parts of the basins in CMIP5, CORDEX, and CORE under all GWLs, but uncertain over most parts in CMIP6. Overall, CORE projects larger areas of robust changes in extreme precipitation compared to other ensembles, with uncertain changes over most parts of the basins in CMIP6. For the avoided impacts by limiting global warming at 1.5°C, all the ensembles agree that the impacts of extreme precipitation will be reduced in general over basins under 1.5°C GWLs compared to 2.0°C and 3.0°C GWLs.

show abstract

Changes in population exposure to extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Cited by 23 publications

References 56 publications

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

Characteristics of population exposure to climate extremes from regional to global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in CMIP6 models

Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part II: Future changes under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C warming levels

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About